Orange and Blue Hue » Florida’s Declining Strength (of Schedule)

Florida’s Declining Strength (of Schedule)

So who’s the one to blame here, Urban Meyer or Jeremy Foley? Remember back to the discussions surrounding the additional game which was to be adopted by the NCAA? At the time the fan consensus was that Florida should renew the series with Miami. Then Jeremy Foley went on record saying that he would prefer an intermittent series with Miami with other years opened up to play great intersectional rivalries against top programs from around the country like Ohio State, Nebraska, USC, etc.

When looking at the Gators future schedule we see Miami is on Florida’s schedule for 2008 and 2013. And the great intersectional teams scheduled for the other years? Intimidating programs like Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Troy, Appalachian State, Furman and Central Florida.

Florida plays four non-conference teams a year. One of these slots is locked up with the annual rivalry with Florida State University while the other three opponents rotate. With the difficulty of Florida’s conference schedule you would think that the Gators have a distinct advantage in the BCS computer rankings. Well they would, if they avoided playing exceedingly bad teams or teams from lower divisions.

Every time Florida plays a lower division team it translates to the computers as if Florida is playing a shorter schedule. Only the Division 1-A opponents effect the computer formulas to any significant degree so unless they make it to the SEC title game the computers are ranking UF with an 11 game rather than a 12 game schedule. On the other side, Michigan plays Central or Western Michigan with that fourth slot and it counts as a D1 opponent thus improving the Wolverines strength of schedule.

Playing notoriously weak teams will also dilute Florida’s natural conference advantage. There are teams that are just plain bad and rarely win have a winning record. You cannot schedule too many of those type teams. This year Florida played one team with a 4-8 record (UCF), one team with an 8-4 record (Southern Miss), one team with a 6-6 record (FSU) and one lower division team that is virtually seen as an open date in the calculations. Had UCF and FSU had the same records of last year it would have increased Florida’s strength of schedule but the “missing game” against Western Carolina still would have hurt more than the extra wins.

While Florida is currently viewed as a 10 win team in the computer algorithms, it WILL get to play Arkansas in the “extra” Conference Championship Game. This game will essentially replace the Western Carolina game and give UF a 12 game schedule and I think you will see this effect in the final computer rankings. However, imagine the boost Florida would have received had they played a mid-major like Wyoming, Cincinnati, Bowling Green, etc, etc, and been able to factor in 13 games into their computer rankings. I’m certain they would easily surpass Michigan in all the computer rankings.

Some people theorize that Florida has to make the SEC Championship Game (SECCG) to have a chance at a national title so scheduling a patsy is beneficial. The flaw to this logic is if Florida plays a team in the SECCG that they previously played in the regular season - say they had a rematch with LSU. In this case two wins against the same team will hold little additional value and will also hurt the strength of the opponent by adding an additional loss to LSU.

If you rematch a team you LOST to during the year I think there is a definitive benefit but I’m not sure how much and how the computers will compute a regular season split with a team. I don’t know if the formulas were written to anticipate playing any team twice since it’s not an expected occurrence.

In 2007 Florida intends to play Florida State, Florida Atlantic, Troy and Central Florida (who might be replaced with another D1AA team as UCF is looking to drop the game). In 2008 the Gators have scheduled Hawaii, Miami, Citadel and Florida State. The Citadel is another D1AA “non-game” that will hurt the Gators. Hawaii will be playing in Gainesville, of course, as the Gators have not played a regular season game outside of the South since 1991. Only Georgia has a worse record of being a regionalized program.

If you reflect on what Foley speculated when the 12th game was first added but look at the scheduling a question probably comes to mind, “What happened?” The only significant change for the department seems to be at the head coach position. So has Urban Meyer told Foley to create an easier non-conference schedule?

Let’s examine the facts. In 2009 the Gators add Florida International to the schedule. In 2010 Appalachian State comes to town. In 2011, Furman is the lucky entrant for Florida’s 12th game. In contrast Georgia added Colorado this year (in addition to their in-state rival Georgia Tech), begins a two year series with Oklahoma State next season and adds Arizona State in 2008. Florida State has added Alabama for 2007 and Colorado for 2008. The University of Miami plays Oklahoma and Texas A&M in 2007 while playing both Florida and Texas A&M in 2008.

And why is it that South Florida, the second best team in the state this year, will play AUBURN in 2007 instead of the Gators? It’s too bad that Auburn has West Virginia on the schedule in 2008 instead of this year, which would have been a marquee matchup.

Florida fans love to make fun of Phil Fulmer’s weight calling him “Krispy Kreme”. But maybe Gator fans should look at Jeremy Foley and Urban Meyer’s (anyone who doesn’t think Meyer has significant influence on the schedule is deluding themselves) propensity to schedule football “cupcakes”. It seems that the University of Florida is quickly becoming the face of “pastry central” for the Southeastern Conference.

Many national programs have turned the 12th game into an exciting Saturday matchup while its become nothing more than a joke in Gainesville. The talking point of UF administrators is that the game is needed to always be played at Ben Hill Griffin for “financial reasons”. Yet somehow I doubt the Athletic Department is going to take this bonus revenue and eliminate the student fees they currently charge.

The additional income of this game didn’t even EXIST in previous years yet it’s now “essential” for running in the black? Where are all these additional costs coming from? The University Athletic Association seems to have taken a page from the NFL’s preseason schedule. In the NFL, season ticket holders are forced to pay for boring and meaningless preseason games as part of the package because the revenue is pure profit for the owners do not have to share.

In Gainesville, Gator fans are being equally scammed by one of the most lucrative athletic programs in the country. Florida’s Athletic Department has been one of the most efficient and profitable in the country thanks in large part to its devoted fan base and generous boosters. Isn’t it time that Foley and Meyer rewarded these same fans with something more than “Appalachian State” or “The Citadel”? One might think so but instead, in the pursuit of the almighty dollar, Gator fans have been literally ”sold out”.

17 Comments so far
Leave a comment

I never thought about the strength of schedule when I compared the likes of FSU playing Troy. I was seeing why would Florida schedule tough out of conference teams if not everyone is. But, as I see now its better overall to bring on tough out of conference games because of the BCS formula and it only makes your team better. For example, take two schools like UNC and NCSU. UNC played some tougher schools on their schedule and NCSU played alot weaker teams. In this scenario it was not about BCS formula, it was getting the younger players big time college football experience.

It doesn’t even have to be a great 1A program, as long as it is a 1A program. UAB, for example; offered to do two in Gainesville for one at UAB. That would have been a good compromise between the greedy administration and the needs of scheduling.

Don’t knock Hawaii though, they’re basically a guranteed 7 or 8 win opponent. Quality team out on that island.

it is embarrassing at this time.
will JF correct this? are the Div.1AA contracts solid? “be the best play the best”!!!! Thanks for the clarity on s. o. schedule…

For whatever it’s worth, when I create my schedules in EA Sports’ NCAA Football I always add USC or Ohio State to guarantee an A+ SOS rating. It seems silly, but it’s pretty obvious. Imagine the money that would roll into GNV if we added a marquee program like that to the schedule every now and then! Fans (and the media) would be delirious.

[…] –Florida’s scheduling doesn’t appear to be getting much stronger in the long run, according to Orange and Blue Hue. What they haven’t taken into account is the improvement of up-and-coming programs; that Florida International program’s on the way up, dammit. […]

I hope that Meyer is learning his lesson and will take a cue from some of the schools he was on staff at…

Maybe he’ll use those connections at Ohio State and Notre Dame and look to add programs like these to the schedule as he gets more involved in the authoring of future schedules…

Well, first of all this years schedule which you seem to pooh pooh was just ranked as # 1 in the nation before the SEC Championship game. Secondly, they are playing this year 4 10 win teams. Comparing the SEC to the Big 2 plus 8 (big ten) or almost any other conference top to bottom and the SEC comes in ahead. So the SEC schedule plus FSU places the Gators schedule year after year as tough as anyones.

Isn’t Boise State in a BCS game with the 74th toughest schedule.

First off there are 11 teams in the Big 10 (don’t be deceived by the name). Second, the SEC is tougher this year than they have been since the late 90s. It isn’t going to be the norm to have 4 10 win teams in conference and if you do, usually that would mean there would be some bad teams making that happen. Of course in previous years there would be only one 10 win team (UF) and 3 9-win teams since one less patsy would be on the schedule and LSU, AU and Ark suffered all their losses in conference which would have happened anyways.

Unless FSU returns to prominence the Gator schedule is pathetic. If you like watching Citadel, Western Carolina and Furman so you can see all the second and third teamers that’s fine. I’d rather see a decent game or not bother playing the game at all (and risk injuries). Western Carolina is not as good as our scout team.

It’s not surprising to read about Gator fans looking down their noses about lower level competition. A little respect for Appalachian State. In 2005 we gave LSU all it could handle and a break or two would have enabled us to knock off North Carolina State. Watch out! You guys might get your butts handed to you by the boys in black!

>>Well they would, if they avoided playing exceedingly bad teams or teams from lower divisions.

Do you even know the divisions in which most of the Gators’ non-conference opponents play?

Keep looking down your noses at teams like Troy - which came 2 minutes from beating FSU and dominated the ‘Noles for the entire game, came less than 2 minutes from beating LSU in its championship year, almost knocked off Ga. Tech this season, and has beaten No. 17 Missouri and Miss. State - and you might be in for a surprise.

Troy - which has been in two bowls in three of its five years in I-A, won the SunBelt this year and took CUSA’s hottest team, Rice, to the woodshed in the New Orleans Bowl - will be good next year. Led by Florida’s top high school QB of 2003, Omar Haugabook of Glades Central, and a host of Florida players, the Trojans will not roll over. Ten thousand to 15,000 Trojans (many from Florida) will be at Florida Field to cheer on our team and celebrate like crazy, should things go our way. Either way, Gainesville will see a well played game.

Troy is no cake walk my friends. I promise you Troy is not a lay down team like everyone of those experts say. Once again I love how the experts dog the SBC. Yeah wow our league is weak but your not gonna forget Troy this fall.

I’m a big Gator fan, have been since shortly moving to FL, but I’m a Troy graduate and a bigger Troy fan than UF. That being said, I am naturally biased towards my Trojans. Now a lot of you say that playing Troy would be bad (note I didn’t say terrible) for your strength of schedule. Of course that is not true, but what is more interesting to me is that you seriously believe that schools like Michigan, Ohio State, Notre Dame and USC would want to come play you guys in the Swamp as one of their out of conference games instead of an easier D1 opponent. Come on, are you kidding me? What intelligent BCS coach or AD would want to come to FL to play one of the best home winning percentage teams in the country, and in one of the most hostile environments for visiting teams to play in? Certainly not a BCS school who is trying to do the same thing FL is trying to do, and that is win all their games. To think that way would be pretty darn cocky or presumptuous of the GATOR nation, don’t you think? Yeah, all those other great power houses want to travel to the Swamp, get their butts handed to them, have a big dent in their BCS championship hopes, not to mention the physical and emotional stress that will be levied on that team. Oh, and also give up a home game so their fans have to travel to a very hostile environment and not to mention the loss of revenue the school would suffer. Ask yourself this question, would you want the Gators to play an away game at OSU, UM, ND or USC and risk a loss just so they play a quality school and risk losing instead of a mid-major conference school coming to the Swamp and at least having a better win to loss ratio? I think most of you would agree on the later. So, in order to fill your 12 game schedule you will have to play teams like Troy (a damn good team by the way) and the good news is, we welcome the opportunity to play the defending national champs in that hostile Swamp. Unlike the Gators who have achieved CFB greatness and are a household name, Troy is not (yet). And these types of games are just what we need to make ourselves better known to the CFB world, mature our program and attract more young talent to join the Trojan team. Here’s a little factoid for you FL fans. Troy is the only D1 football school that signs more FL kids than any other D1 school outside of FL. So we know where the good talent is and we are tapping it and we are able to attract this talent thanks to the opportunity to play teams like FL. So, be forewarned, we are not a patsy and we will be bringing a well seasoned team that is really starting to hit on all cylinders. One thing I think we will have in September that the GATORS won’t have as much of coming into this game, emotion. Troy will be playing what should be the highest ranking team we have ever played, if not No. 1. So, this will be our championship game, this will be our Super Bowl. We will have nothing to lose and everything to gain. FL will open up against WKU and then Troy. We’re hoping you will be looking past us for your big SEC match up against Tenn. Unfortunately I know Urban will not be taking Troy lightly. He knows what a Cinderella team can do to a giant like UF. I already know the whole Troy football team and coaches are talking about this game and they will be prepping and priming for this game and will come with their best game plan. Loud stadiums and hostile fans don’t phase or bother us, just ask Nebraska, FSU, GT, Miami, Mizz, Marshal, Miss, MN, Iowa State, Maryland, South Carolina and LSU. So, instead of talking down about the TROYs of the world, you should be glad we are willing to play any school, any where, any time! By the way, that was FSUs modus operandi many years ago when they were a young D1 team and look where they are now (minus this past year). Even Bobby Bowden has said Troy reminds him of the early days of FSU. Can’t wait until Sept 8, 2007!

I can’t believe after the impressive Troy season and ranking in the top 50 in the nation that such comments were made regarding Troy. It will be interesting to see not just a fellow team-mate from Tebow’s high school, Austin Silvoy ,(redshirt freshman) but one of Tebow’s top “go-to receivers” at Nease. Silvoy has been touted as the redshirt fresman expected to make a contribution this year at Troy.
GO TROJANS!!!!

Hmmm… might want to rethink that last paragraph based on last week’s win by Applachian State over Michigan… I think a few more people than normal may be interested in that matchup now.

Who cares??? We have a method for sucess which means two easy games to start, SEC and FSU. When we have another game we don’t need a big time opponent. Our sos is plenty good enough and a loss would not help it any.

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

Leave a comment
Line and paragraph breaks automatic, e-mail address never displayed, HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <code> <em> <i> <strike> <strong>

That's right folks! It's football betting time at BetUS.com and we're back with the biggest bonuses in the industry! BetUS.com is Amerca's leading sportsbook providing latest football lines on all games. Come on down to BetUS.com and start betting on your favorite sport!