November 20th, 2008 FLORIDA FOOTBALL: FOOD FOR A MAN'S SOUL SEND US AN EMAIL

Meyer vs. Weis Part I

meyer1.jpgTwo coaches took over elite football programs following the 2004 football season.  Although Florida and Notre Dame are not age old rivals, are in different regions of the country and are not matched up in bowls with any frequency . . . the recent past of these two schools have become strongly intertwined and the comparisons obvious.  It began when both schools attempted to woo Urban Meyer from Utah.  Meyer had strong ties to Notre Dame having coached there as an assistant under two different Irish head coaches.
 
weis_charlie.jpgAfter Meyer accepted the job at the University of Florida, Notre Dame turned the reigns over of their football program to New England Patriots offensive coordinator Charlie Weis.  Weis, a Belichek and Parcells disciple, brought his pro style offense to the Irish and turned a mediocre team into an offensive juggernaut which immediately propelled the Irish into a perpetual top 10 ranking.  Meyer took his spread option attack to Gainesville and, although the offensive results have been disappointing, restored a program to national and SEC prominence.
 
Its only natural to compare these two men and their accomplishments in the past two years. 

First we look at Meyer.  The Irish were confident they could lure Meyer to South Bend.  They fired Ty Willingham, in part, because they felt they needed to make a move before Meyer moved up to a job it would be harder to pry him out of.  Meyer had strong ties to the school and a thorough knowledge of the university from his time there.  Additionally his team oriented approach seemed just the right fit to fix the ills of the current program - which had grown sloppy, lost focus and seemed to be more a collection of individuals than a cohesive unit.
 
The University of Florida was already looking for a replacement for fired coach Ron Zook.  Meyer was on the top of that list.  Florida also had a strong connection to Meyer as its new president, Bernie Machen, was formerly the president of Utah and had been part of hiring Urban for the Utah job.  It gave Florida to have a distinct advantage when evaluating Meyer’s abilities and performance as well as an existing relationship that could be used to contact Meyer and gauge any interest in the job.
 
After hearing both schools best pitch, Meyer ultimately decided to go to Gainesville.  What he inherited there was a team with a number of off-field problems, a lack of leadership and a team with personnel issues at several positions.  What he DIDN’T inherit though was a team devoid of talent.  While previous coach Ron Zook was known more for his mistakes than his successors,  he had left some quality players at the school.  It could be argued that Zook left the school with at LEAST as much talent as he had been left by Spurrier.
 
So we have two coaches who, though they have never met or coached together, are unexpectedly linked on the football landscape.  Which coach is better?  Which has accomplished more?  While fans of each school will differ on these questions we decided to analyze it using several categories. 
 
1) Did the team win more games in the coaches first year than the previous year and by how much?
2) Was the team more competitive in games than in the previous year?
3) Did the team improve in specific categories (offense, defense, special teams)?
4) Did the team win more games in the second year than the first?
5) Was the team more competitive than in the first year?
6) Has the coach been able to land quality recruiting classes?
7) How has national perception changed?
8) Is the fan base happy with the direction of the program?
9) How has the team done in the polls?
10) How has the team ended their season?
 
A scoring system will be used with the following standards to each topic.
Definitive advantage - 2 pts
Marginal advantage - 1 pt
Even - 0 pts
 
Despite both schools having Top 10 football programs, there are too many differences to simply look at a ranking or record to see relative improvement.  So we will look at each category and then see which coach has done a better job.
 
Criteria 1:  Did the team win more games in the coaches first year than the previous year and by how much?
 
Ron Zook was fired before the end of the season but allowed to remain through the end of the year.  He did not coach in the Peach Bowl, defensive coordinator Charlie Strong was named interim head coach, which ended in a blowout loss to Miami.  Florida finished the year at 7-5.  Zook managed to win at FSU for the first time since the 1980s but he also lost to Georgia - only the second loss to the Bulldogs since 1990.  Florida went 4-4 in the SEC.  In Urban Meyer’s first year, he went 9-3 and ended with a bowl win against Iowa in the Outback Bowl.  This equates to 2 more wins with 2 fewer losses.  It must be noted that when compared to Zook himself its 2 more wins and 1 fewer loss.  Meyer’s SEC record was also one game better at 5-3.  Meyer was able to continue the win streak against FSU and regain the upper hand against the Bulldogs and Volunteers.
 
Ty Willingham was fired at the end of the season and was allowed to coach the bowl game.  His final record in 2004 was 6-6.  The big wins for Willingham were against Michigan and Tennessee.  He finished the year with a loss to Oregon State in the Insight Bowl.  In his first year, Coach Weis went 9-3 continuing the wins against Michigan and Tennessee.  Notre Dame’s biggest moment though was a heartbreaking last second loss to then #1 ranked USC.  In the Fiesta Bowl, Notre Dame lost to Ohio State by two touchdowns.  Overall, under Weis the team won three more games and three fewer losses.
 
Advantage - Marginal Weis

Comments - All things being equal it’s a 3 game versus a 2 game improvement.  An argument can be made for schedule being in Notre Dame’s favor but at the same time no one dreamed that the Irish had any chance to win more than 7-8 games.  Many expected Weis to have a losing season in his first year.
 
Criteria 2:  Was the team more competitive in games than in the previous year?
 
Ron Zook’s biggest flaw wasn’t just his lack of big victories but losing to teams he had no business losing to.  The loss to Tennessee was one of those events where the bounce of the ball can go either way.  However the loss to Mississippi State was inexcusable.  Meyer reversed the losses to Georgia and Tennessee and other than the Alabama contest it was in every game.  Zook’s 4 losses were by an average of 5 points, the only blowout loss (2 TD or more) for Florida was against Miami after Ron had left for the job at Illinois.  Scores between the two years are fairly comparable.  Zook lost to LSU by 3, Meyer by 4.  Not counting weak out of conference opponents, Zook had blowout wins against Arkansas, South Carolina, UK and Vanderbilt, Meyer against FSU, Miss St and Kentucky.  Both teams were similar in close losses, Zook had more “decisive” wins (4 to 3) but Meyer has the most impressive blowout against ACC Champion FSU.
 
Out of Ty Willingham’s 6 losses, 3 were blowouts (2 TDs or more) to Pittsburgh, USC and the bowl matchup versus Oregon State.  Ty also had two blowout wins against Washington (where he would end up the head next coach) and Navy.  In Weis’s first year only the Fiesta bowl meets our criteria for a blowout loss.  In contrast Notre Dame dominated 7 teams winning by 14 or more points, including a 49-28 revenge win against Purdue for the 16-41 loss the previous year.
 
Advantage - Definitive Weis 

Comments - Only by looking back at the 2004 schedule for Notre Dame did I realize how bad the Irish had become.  Neither the 2004 nor 2005 schedule was particularly daunting yet Notre Dame’s performance in games improved dramatically.  Florida’s competitiveness didn’t change dramatically.  It seems like the addition of Meyer improved Florida’s mental toughness late in games rather than drastically improving the talent and execution on the field.  For Weis . . . it looked like a completely different Notre Dame team.

Score after Criteria 1 and 2:  Weis 3  - Meyer 0

To be continued . . . . .

2 Comments so far
Leave a comment

Howdy,

First, let me congratulate you and your Gators on your national championship.

While Weis-Meyer comparisons are inevitable, and Meyer has the upper hand at the moment with 2 bowl wins and a National Championship, I think they both have done a terrific job at getting their teams to play at a level far above (for ND: on offense, anyway) what they displayed in the three previous seasons before their arrival.

Florida’s NC has apparently ended any criticism of Meyer, for the time being anyway (we college football fans tend to exhibit the “What have you done lately?” mentality to a ridiculous degree). While ND’s last four losses - all to teams finishing in that season’s top 10 - have brought criticism, in the previous three seasons (2002-04), the Irish had been on the wrong end of 8 21+ point losses, including 5 31+ point losses, a 25 point loss to 7-5 Purdue and a (2003) 26 point loss to 6-6 Syracuse. Nor was there much promise of improvement; Ty’s final two recruiting classes were not on anyone’s Top 25 list, the first of which (this coming year’s seniors) has only 8 players left.

While you reveal yourself to be a thoughtful analyst, and it is unreasonable to expect someone to remember somewhat mundane details about a team you don’t follow, there are two inaccuracies in your post that you might want to rectify:

–”Ty Willingham was fired at the end of the season and was allowed to coach the bowl game”

Willingham did not coach the Irish in the 2004 Insight bowl. ND defensive coordinator Kent Baer served as a one-game interim coach. Willingham had moved on already, having accepted the Washington job on Dec. 12, 2004, the same day ND announced that it had hired Weis.

–”Out of Ty Willingham’s [2004] 6 losses, 3 were blowouts (2 TDs or more) to Pittsburgh, USC and the bowl matchup versus Oregon State.”

The 2004 Irish lost to Pitt 41-38. They lost to 7W-5L Purdue 41-16 at home that year, which you mention 3 sentences later. Obviously a simple “oops” mistake, but you might want to correct it.

I believe you are correct, though, in stating that a look at the 2004 Irish season reveals how bad ND had become. In addition to the losses already mentioned, they had 11 total rushing yards in a loss to 5-6 BYU and lost to Boston College at home. Their two “marquee” wins came over a Michigan team starting a freshman quarterback and a Tennessee team who, after losing their starting quarterback to injury right before halftime, resorted to using a transfer QB who hadn’t taken a competitive snap in two years. He promptly threw an ill-advised pass to an Irish linebacker, who returned the pick for the go-ahead score.

Also, a couple of comments that I would take issue with:

–”In Weis’s first year only the Fiesta bowl meets our criteria for a blowout loss.”

The vast majority of the college football world considers the 34-20 loss to OSU in the Fiesta Bowl a “blow-out”. I assume its because the Buckeyes rolled up 617 yards to ND’s 348. However, the outcome was still very much in doubt late in the 4th quarter. After the Irish rallied to within 27-20 with 5 minutes left, they needed only to muster a defensive stop to get the ball back with two timeouts and a chance to tie the game. Alas, Troy Smith converted two third-and-longs, and Antonio Freeman burst through a stunting Irish D for the clinching touchdown with just under 2 minutes left. I suspect that many folks’ urge to classify this a blowout possibly stems from “Laura Quinn Publicity Grab” fatigue….

–”After hearing both schools best pitch, Meyer ultimately decided to go to Gainesville.”

This sentence is somewhat misleading, in that it gives the impression that FL and ND had equal and contemporaneous shots to present their “best pitch”.

In truth, when Willingham was (suprisingly) canned on Tuesday, Nov. 30, 2004, Meyer had been in contact with Florida for at least three weeks already, and was very close to accepting the job when ND canned Ty. Meyer did some last minute consideration of ND, highlighted by a rather hastily arranged flight by Irish AD Kevin White to Salt Lake City to try to pry Meyer away from his impending commitment. Meyer asked White if ND would sweeten the pot by agreeing to lower its entrance requirements and/or accept transfer and juco players (something his former ND boss, Bob Davie, had complained about incessantly, to no avail). ND said no. Meyer also consulted Davie (a somewhat bitter failure as ND coach), his father, and his wife, all of whom recommended FL over ND as the better job. The last of these three, in my opinion, is the key: as any married man knows, if the wife ain’t happy, you ain’t happy.

(All of the above can be confirmed by reading the contemporaneous accounts of these events as reported in the South Bend Tribune and the Orlando Sentinel. Having attended ND, I still read the SB Tribune; having grown up in Orlando, I still read the Sentinel….)

Meyer accepted the FL position on either Friday, Dec. 3, 2004. Florida had presented its best pitch, without competition, for a month. ND had two days to present its best pitch with the FL job offer already on the table. It is hard not to conclude that ND was at a considerable disadvantage by the time it contacted Meyer.

So where do the two programs go from here? Florida looks like they are in a position for a “1987-2000 Florida State”-style camp-out in the Top 5. ND still has to recover from Ty’s last two recruiting classes (this coming year’s juniors and seniors), of which the only 4-star recruit, Darius Walker, is now gone to the NFL draft. However, they are doing well in recruiting top-tier offensive talent, and Irish faithful are high on the propects of an improved defense under Corwin Brown, which should lead to better defensive recruiting. In the case of both FL and ND, I think it is fair to say that both schools got a coach that they are going to be very happy with over the next decade or so….

Anyway, congrats again on your national championship….

[…] Part Two of our continuing series on Urban Meyer and Charlie Weis and their impact on their respective teams.  For a history and explanation of the scoring and categories click here –> Meyer vs. Weis Part I […]



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