Part Two of our continuing series on Urban Meyer and Charlie Weis and their impact on their respective teams.  For a history and explanation of the scoring and categories click here –> Meyer vs. Weis Part I

Criteria 3:  Did the team improve in specific categories (offense, defense, special teams)?

In Weis’s first year Notre Dame did improve in several categories.  Despite their overall perception of having a porous defense, their passing defense and first downs allowed did improve from the previous season.  The rushing defense declined and the team allowed 11 more rushing TDs than the year before which counteracted the reduced number of TDs allowed through the air.  Punt returns improved slightly and scored 2 more TDs than the year before while kickoffs remained the same.  The punting statistics were similar however ND had nearly twice as many punts in 04 than in 05.

Offensively the difference is much more pronounced.  The Irish scored 150 points more than the previous year (almost 12 points per game).  Notre Dame rushed for over 200 more yards, threw for 1300 more yards and averaged almost a yard more per play than the previous season.  The passing offense was the most enhanced as Brady Quinn more than doubled his completions, increased his completion percentage by 10%, threw 12 more TDs with 2 less interceptions.  Notre Dame also increased their time of possession by over 2 minutes per game.

The Notre Dame defense was inconsistent in 2006 compared to 2005 improving in some areas but getting worse in others.  While first downs allowed remained close, the Irish gave up more rushing yards, passing TDs, and had fewer interceptions while the opponents passing ratings increased.  The Notre Dame defense DID, however reduce the average yard per rush, rushing TDs, overall passing yards and opponents scoring (almost a point per game).  Offensively the team took a step back.  Rushing and passing yardage decreased by 120 and 480 yards respectively (almost 90 total yards a game).  Time of possession decreased by over 2 minutes per game and the team scored 37 points less than the year before.  They did do a much better job on punt coverage cutting return yardage almost in half.

As impressive as the shift in offensive efficiency when Weis took over Notre Dame is the increase in defensive efficiency for Florida after Meyer’s arrival.  From 2004 to 2005 Florida gave up almost 50 fewer yards per game, half a yard less per rush, 41 fewer first downs and almost 2.5 points fewer per game.  Special teams coverage remained fairly constant through the coaching change.  Offensively the Gators declined in 2005 scoring almost 3 points less, rushing for 10 less and passing for 45 fewer yards per game.  Yards per play also declined by a yard from 6.1 to 5.1.  So while the defense became much more efficient under Meyer the offense suffered an almost equal and opposite lag.

From 2005 to 2006, Florida’s defense became even more dominant.  The Gators held opponents to an average of 5 points less per game than the previous year and 45 fewer yards per game.  Florida’s defense improved in virtually all categories and forced more than twice as many interceptions (21) as they allowed TDs (10).  Basically Florida improved from a very good top 20 defense to a great top 5 defense nationally.

On offense the Gators still lagged behind the numbers produced under Zook in 2004.  However, they did manage to improve their scoring up to 30 points a game and averaged nearly 25 more yards per game.  What stands out is their average per play which increased approximately a yard in rushing, passing and overall.  The average yard per rushing and passing play are the one area that exceeded the numbers of the Zook regime pointing to an increase in offensive efficiency. 

Overall, kicking, punting, penalties and turnovers didn’t significantly vary from the Zook to Meyer regime or from Willingham to Weis.  An interesting oddity is that under both Weis and Meyer penalties increased from the previous staff and in the second year from the first.  As pointed out in other studies though, penalty yardage has virtually no impact on whether a team wins or loses and often the inverse is true (the more penalized team tends to win).  Florida seemed to improve offensively in both years having their best performances in their last two games (FSU and Iowa in 2005 and Arkansas and Ohio State in 2006).  By contrast Notre Dame has its second lowest scoring output of 2005 in its bowl game against Ohio State and in 2006 they had 2 of their 4 lowest scoring outings against USC (4th lowest - 24 points) and LSU (1st lowest - 14 points).  In fact the 14 points scored against LSU was the lowest ever in the Weis era.

Advantage - Marginal Meyer.  While Florida suffered offensively in Meyer’s first year, the defense steadily improved throughout and in the second year the offense also showed improvement in the new system.  Weis’s resume was basically a huge improvement in offense in the first year.  Weis could get marks for a slight improvement in defense over his term but we are talking about degrees of mediocrity here.  Rarely did the defense step up and significantly influence a game.  Weis also suffered in that his offensive statistics declined in his second year.  However even in its reduced state they still were significantly better than the pre-Weis era.  Considering that Charlie did this with essentially the same personnel suggests it was directly attributable to his system and coaching staff. 

Criteria 4:   Did the team win more games in the second year than the first year?

From 2005 to 2006 the Florida Gators went from 9-3 to 13-1 for a net improvement of 4 more wins and two fewer losses (remember the season expanded from 11 to 12 games and the SEC championship game is an extra game for the Gators).  In conference the Gators improved from 5-3 to 7-1 (not including the Arkansas win in the conference championship).  In neither year did Florida lose to any non-SEC opponents.

From 2005 to 2006 Notre Dame went from 9-3 to 10-3 for a net improvement of 1 win.  Both years ended with a disappointing and lopsided bowl loss against top 5 teams.  Both years included a loss to USC while in 2005 the other regular season was to Michigan State, in 2006 it was Michigan.

Advantage - Definitive Meyer  Comments - Weis started with a flurry but managed to only maintain in his second year.  Perhaps “slightly” improve with an extra win in the extra game.  Despite the complaints over the Acadamies, Notre Dame plays a competitive schedule (much more so than most D1A teams) and they should get credit for the extra win.  However Meyer improved a struggling team in 2005 to a one loss team in 2006 despite two extra games.  This one really isn’t close.

Criteria 5:  Was the team more competitive than in the first year?

In 2005, Florida’s losses were all in conference, Alabama, LSU and South Carolina.  Only the South Carolina game was considered an upset.  The Alabama game was a 30 point blowout loss, South Carolina won by 8 points while the LSU game was a 4 point contest.  In 2006, Florida reversed the losses against Alabama and LSU, winning by 18 and 13 respectively, and edged South Carolina in a tightly contested contest by a point sealed up by a blocked field goal at the end of the game.  Florida’s only loss was a road game at Auburn where momentum turned on a controversial call.  A terribly executed Cal-Stanford attempt in the games closing seconds gave Auburn a late TD to extend a three point margin to ten.

Notre Dame lost 3 games in 2005, both the USC and Michigan State losses were by three points in highly contested games.  The Ohio State loss in the Fiesta Bowl was a two touchdown blowout.  In 2006, Notre Dame again lost 3 games.  This time all three losses were blowouts.  Michigan beat the Irish by 26, USC won by 20 and LSU blew them out in the Sugar Bowl by 27.  That’s 3 games with an average loss of 24 points compared to losing 3 games by an average of 7 points in 2005.

Advantage - Definitive Meyer   Comments - Perhaps because they were back to back years I hadn’t noticed the difference before I checked the records.  Clearly the two regular season losses were very close games and losing to USC actually became a moral victory for the Irish in national perception.  In the bowl game they faced what was arguably the best defense in college for the year.  The speed advantage that OSU had on defense was similar to what they would see in 2006 against LSU.  Meyer not only eliminated two-thirds of his losses but the loss was a close game in a nationally televised night game on the road.  Auburn also beat LSU at home, another top 5 team.

Previous Totals through 2 Categories: Meyer = 0, Weis = 3

Updated Totals through 5 Categories: Meyer = 5, Weis = 3