The folks over at Rush The Court have done an analysis on the nation’s top performing basketball programs in the modern age. Using the beginning of the 64 seed tournament as a start point (1985) they have analyzed the success (and failures) of teams in the NCAA Tournament. Though much of it seems to be common sense their analysis identifies eight elite basketball programs further divided into three categories. These eight programs have been ranked based on appearances, winning percentage, Sweet 16, Final Four appearances and national titles.

Using a minimum of eight NCAA appearances as a prerequisite for analysis (to prove a program’s consistency rather than being just a short term fluke) 39 teams were identified as having won more than half of their games (50%). At the 70% level eight programs stand out, those programs are Duke, Connecticut, North Carolina, Kentucky, UNLV, Kansas, Florida and Michigan. When pulling all the factors together an Elite Eight programs were identified and further broken down into three groups. First you have the top 3 programs, Duke, North Carolina and Kentucky in that order. Duke clearly has the dominant statistics in terms of appearances, #1 seeds, sweet 16s, Final Fours and national Titles. In fact Duke is the only program with 3 national titles in this era.

Behind Duke both North Carolina and Kentucky are neck and neck in second place and the authors give UNC the nod and I concur. Despite virtually the same number of appearances (21-20), sweet sixteens (15-14), winning percentage (0.750-0.743) and Titles (2 apiece), North Carolina has almost twice the number of Final Fours as the Wildcats (7-4). Following the top 3 come the other traditional powers of Kansas, UCLA and Indiana with Indiana being having the most tenuous hold on the list due to its lack of recent success. Following those six programs come the “nouveaux riche” programs. The up and coming elite programs that have the numbers and success but not the longer tradition. Those teams are Connecticut and Florida.

Florida might seem a surprising pick because despite the recent success Florida didn’t receive its first NCAA bid until 1986 when it advanced to the Sweet Sixteen under Norm Sloan three seasons in a row. After a 5 year drought the Gators again made an appearance in the tournament under head coach Lon Kruger advancing to the Final Four in 1994. After a once game appearance in 1995 the Gators again disappeared from the tournament for four years before reappearing in Billy Donovan’s 3rd year (1998). To the present day the Gators have received a bid each year since.

So in all Florida has had as many tournament appearances as fellow nouveaux riche team UConn (14). Although UConn has almost twice as many Sweet 16 appearances (11 to 6), Florida has twice as many Final Fours (4 to 2) while both schools each have two national titles. Both schools have winning percentages above 70% with Florida hovering at 0.703 and UConn having the next best percentage other than Duke at 0.760. How does this compare to other powers?

Obviously only one school has more NCAA Titles in the modern era (Duke) but Florida also has more Final Four appearances than notable programs like Syracuse, Michigan, Georgetown, UCLA, Arkansas, UNLV and Indiana. Florida also has more appearances (14) than Memphis, Oklahoma State, Utah, Cincinnati, St Johns, LSU and Wake Forest. Because of Florida’s long stretch of first or second round losses the weakest part of the Gator resume is in Sweet 16 appearances. But six Sweet Sixteens still puts Florida in a grouping with Michigan (5), Arkansas (6), Oklahoma State (6), Georgia Tech (6), Indiana (7), Memphis (5), Utah (5), Oklahoma (7), Illinois (6), Texas (6) and Temple (5).

Would Florida be an elite team if not for the past two years? Of course not, such a claim would have been laughable in 2005. But if you are able to quickly add 12 tournament wins, 2 more Final Four appearances and 2 national championships the picture changes considerably. What some people fail to realize though is had it not been for the Final Four appearance under Kruger and the title game loss in 2000 to Michigan State Florida’s claim to being an elite program would be considerably weaker. Luckily 4 Final Four appearances in 12 years (1994-95 to 2006-07) is a compelling statistic even without the titles. It literally translates that in the last dozen years the Gators have participated in a full THIRD of all the Final Fours in that period. For a school with virtually NO basketball tradition prior to the modern era this is truly an impressive feat.

The biggest criticism to the Gators success is, that like UConn, it is closely tied to its head coach (Billy Donovan). Programs like Kansas, North Carolina and UCLA have reached the Final Four under different coaches. And although Florida first went to the Final Four under Lon Kruger it was clear that Lon seemed incapable of repeating the feat. In the face of increased program scrutiny Lon jumped to the greener pastures of Illinois where he felt his chances for success were greater. While this claim might have merit it won’t be answered for decades. How will Duke respond once the great Coach K retires? Where will Syracuse be after Boeheim? The fact that those programs have had great success doesn’t guarantee they won’t fall from the upper echelons when their long tenured coaches call it quits.

Looking at the numbers and reiterating the conclusion of the folks at Rush The Court, Florida has a very strong argument to be considered an ELITE program of the modern era. Whether Florida and Connecticut can continue to make noise with the big boys and move from a recent power program to a “traditional” power is the question. Judging from the recruiting, facilities and commitment from the University of Florida Athletic Department I’d have to say that the Gators have a very good opportunity to make that leap with another decade or so of continued success.

In a related article Florida also ranks as one of the greatest overacheivers in the history of the tournament as based on seeding. With Seton Hall and Kentucky errrr . . . Louisville (sorry Wildcats) being the other two top overachievering NCAA programs behind the Gators.