January 06th, 2009 FLORIDA FOOTBALL: FOOD FOR A MAN'S SOUL SEND US AN EMAIL

Chase Daniel vs. Tim Tebow

From a comment on a Missouri Website (bullyforoldmizzou.blogspot.com) I found the following information and analysis.  I thought it was worth sharing here.

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Tebow21.jpgi was interested in comparing the statistics of Daniel and Tebow against comparable defenses, here is what i found.

They share one common opponent, Mississippi. Against Miss, Daniel threw for 330 yards and 5 TDs and rushed for an additional 55 yards for a grand total of 385 yards offense, impressive. Against Miss, Tebow threw for 261 yards and 2 TDs and rushed for 166 yards and 2 TDs for a grand total of 427 yards and 4 TDs, perhaps even more impressive?

I also looked for opponents that had similar pass defenses to use as additional comparables.

UF faced pass defenses ranked #4(USC), #5(Troy), #6(LSU), #8(Auburn), #17(Vandy), #21(Kentucky), #24(UGA), #55(Miss), #71(FAU), #73(FSU), #83(Tenn), Western Kentucky unranked.

Missouri faced: #16(TexasTech), #48(Western Mich), #55(Miss), #59(Kansas), #70(Oklahoma), #77(Illinois), #84(Nebraska), #91(Iowa St), #94(KState), #100(Colorado), #101(TexasAM), Illinois State unranked.

chase.jpgI was surprised by the disparity in the defensive numbers for the opponents. In fact the worst ranked team the UF faced (Tenn) is actually ranked higher than 5 of the Missouri opponents. The median rank of the UF opponents is 21, whereas the median rank of the Missouri opponents is 77. The defenses faced by Missouri have done a good job of making many QBs look very good this season.

The highest ranked defense that Missouri has faced is Texas Tech (#16). In that game, Daniel threw for 210 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, his worst game of the year. Vandy is the 5th best pass defense that UF has faced and they have a comparable ranking (#17) to Texas Tech. Against Vandy, Tebow threw for 280 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT, (he also ran for 35 yards and 2 TDs). Again, against comparable defenses, Tebow has put up better numbers.

I have no doubt that going up against Oklahoma’s #70 pass defense will again allow Daniel to put up a lot of yards and add to his excellent stats. If he does not throw 2 interceptions again, maybe this time he will be able to beat the Sooners.

From the data, i draw the conclusion that Daniel’s stats are inflated because his team has played against weak defenses all year, and that Tebow has put up comparable passing numbers against much stiffer competition. Oh, and Tebow has run for an NCAA record 22 TDs as well.

I salute Missouri for having an excellent year, and i think that Daniel is a great player, but when it comes down to the most outstanding player in the country, i think that it is clearly Tebow.

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Based on this analysis it looks like Chase Daniels statistics are quite inflated by playing in a poor defensive conference.  Chase Daniels is still an excellent quarterback but this proves what many people have told me all year long.  He has not played against a top caliber defenses all year long and has been feasting on some lesser defenses that lack SEC (aka NFL caliber) speed and athleticism.

Personally I had Chase Daniels as my number two Heisman choice with McFadden third.  Perhaps I should give Darren more credit because he DID at least run up great numbers against better defenses.  Is there anyone who doesn’t believe that if McFadden played in the Big 12 conference that he would probably have over 2000 yards by now?  Up until now I haven’t been taking the conference affiliation into account and perhaps I should have.

The funniest thing I have heard is that Chase Daniels would have even better stats if he ran 35% of the time like Tebow did.  Think about it Mizzou fans.  If lil 5′11″, 215lb Chase Daniels tried to run 35% of the time he wouldn’t last 35% of the season even in against weak Big 12 defenses.  Daniels could easily be the 4th or 5th best quarterback in the SEC (Tebow, Woodson, Ainge, Stafford, Wilson, Flynn).  Probably 4th between Ainge and Stafford.  But do you notice how all those quarterbacks are bigger and stronger than Chase (they need to be to survive this conference)? The Big 12 reminds me of the old Pac-10 where teams started putting all their athletes on offense and stopped caring defense (they did put up some great numbers and had some tremendous offensive shows though).

 

7 Comments so far
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If you want a thorough look at the stats of Daniel vs. Tebow, complete with adjustments for defense and conference, I got you covered: http://year2.wordpress.com/2007/11/26/tebow-vs-daniel-passing/

Thanks, Y2

No problem. Love the site.

Well, Im glad to see this argument is over! Maybe Daniels can get back to eating his bugars

I love how you guys can find stats for anything stop messing with them and go with the raw numbers! Tim Tebow may be a good QB but as this season proved a good QB doesn’t make a good team so take your weak SEC (who the best-of-the-best is LSU who lost to TWO UNRANKED teams this season) and your weak Florida and go watch the Capital One Bowl (At least you will get to see which mascot is the best!

Tim Tebow for president in 2009!!

Go Gators.

tim tebow sucks compared to chase daneil. tim tebow might have put up good numbers against better defeses but look at there offense they have a lot of draft potenteil players. look at chase stays in the pocket like a quarterback should. tim tebows runs for a touchdown that is are five yards in.chase daniel led his team to the top ten in the hardest confrence the big 12. so dont try to say chase daniel is worse than tim tebow and hes committed to his team tim tebow will be long gone after his junior year. now chase daniel will be a better nfl player because he will be better in the pocket. well chase daniel is #1



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