Cheer up, Phil… it’ll only get worse

While many seem to be looking at this year’s Outback Bowl as another showcase for the SEC versus the Big 10, I wholeheartedly disagree. Vegas might have the Volunteers as more than a field goal favorite, but I’d be surprised if Tennessee was within seven points of the Badgers by the time all is said and done. Don’t get me wrong, I root for SEC teams in all the bowls but if Tennessee wins, I’d be more than pleasantly surprised; I’d be shocked.

Let’s look at this scenario. On one hand we have a young, mistake prone and distracted team in Knoxville facing a slightly more mature, disciplined and focused Badger team. Tennessee is one of the softest teams in the SEC with a porous defense that managed to push the old “bend but don’t break” cliché to the very limit. The Vols’ success this season rested entirely on the production and leadership of senior quarterback Erik Ainge and the offensive mind of David Cutcliffe. Ainge will enter a game a seasoned veteran but will also be thinking about his NFL future while Cutcliffe is coaching his last game with the Vols before taking over the head coaching position at Duke.

Fulmer found himself under the gun all season by those who dearly wanted this to be his swan song. Several other coaches could end up leaving for new opportunities after this bowl game much like rats jumping from a sinking ship as the closure of the Fulmer era seems to be more a matter of “when” than “if“. Given all this staff turmoil Tennessee has also seen two starters from its much maligned and suspect defense suspended with four other players also deemed academically ineligible. On the flip side, rumors from Madison are that PJ Hill, one of the nation’s top and most physical running backs, will be able to play in the game.

Despite those myopic individuals who think the SEC speed argument can just blindly be applied to any matchup of SEC and Big 10 this game shapes up to be a rout. The Vols will need that SEC speed to chase the Badgers down the field after they are pancaked at the line of scrimmage and run over by Hill. The only thing that can keep Tennessee in this game would be a focused effort by the Volunteer offense and its coordinator. If they play anything less than an efficient game it won’t be close. The only chance Smokey’s girls have would be a near FLAWLESS execution by Ainge and company. But I doubt it; with all the current chaos surrounding the team and staff, I don’t see it happening.

Last year Tennessee was punched in the mouth by a less talented but more determined Penn State team. This year a bigger and more physical Wisconsin team will dominate the line of scrimmage once again. Expect the Vol defense to consistently be pushed backward allowing Hill several yards to get a head of steam before even coming into contact with a defensive player. When Tennessee tries to stack the line of scrimmage (their only option) they will find out that Tylor Donovan can be a very efficient quarterback when complementing the Badger ground game. While I’d like nothing better than for the Volunteers to man up and play like an SEC team should, I fully expect the cream and tangerine to once again prove themselves an embarrassment to the league.

To any rational observer the Tennessee Volunteer football program is struggling to stay afloat. A drain of top prep talent and conservative (aka out-of-date) coaching style have stripped the program of its luster. The Manning era is nearly forgotten now and Knoxville has attained the unenviable label of a “rogue program“. The Vol fanbase is fractured while the administration is losing patience with the combination of bad publicity for off-field incidents and bad publicity for on the field performance. The Outback Bowl is not the end of the Fulmer reign in Knoxville; however, a blowout next Tuesday might just prove to be the beginning of the end for Phat Phil.

Prediction
Wisconsin 35, Tennessee 20

In other SEC games:

Florida 49, Michigan 17

UCF 24, Miss St 16

Alabama 28, Colorado 17

Kentucky 38, FSU 21

Missouri 35, Arkansas 24

Auburn 20, Clemson 10

Georgia 42, Hawaii 24

LSU 31, Ohio State 17