There has been much ado (at least by me) regarding the ratings drop for the NCAA Tournament this year. My curiosity on the subject caused me to dig a little deeper into the issue. There were initial attempts by some to declare the first week’s rating decline as simply a function of Easter Weekend (because of all the avid catholic roundball fans I guess). However when the trend continued into week two that seemed a bit of a stretch (a weeklong Easter Hangover?). But then in the face of those lukewarm first two weekends the 2008 NCAA Tournament revealed to us a dream Final Four . . . a compilation where all four number one seeds had reached the final weekend. But that was not all as it also included three of the most storied college basketball programs in UCLA, North Carolina and Kansas. I mean what could be better than that, right?

Well, I’ll tell you something that could have been better – CLOSE, WATCHABLE games. It’s true, I fell into the trap thinking that this compelling matchup of titans (which also included recent power Memphis who had held the #1 spot in the polls for most of the season) would make for some exciting and dynamic games. Unfortunately nothing could have been further from the truth. The results of last weekends contests between UCLA and Memphis and North Carolina and Kansas were two truly ANTI-CLIMATIC blowouts of 15 and 18 points respectively. Oooooh, what gripping television . . . is that going to boost ratings?

According to the overnight ratings - apparently not. Last weekend’s overnight showed that while the marquee evening matchup of Kansas and North Carolina approximated last years UCLA vs Florida late semifinal game (at least it probably will after the ratings are expanded in the next few days), the preceding game (UCLA vs Memphis) was down almost 14% from last years matchup of Ohio State and Georgetown. Okay so what gives? Why is it that this tournament could end up becoming the second lowest rated Tournament in the past 3 decades? Only the 2003 Tournament will have lower ratings than 2008 and that tournament has the excuse of being played at the beginning of the Iraqi War.

I will admit, although I do not have a Nielson’s Box, that I did CBS no favors as I forgot about the Memphis-UCLA game early on and when I checked it as it was already a second half blowout. My NCAA “for entertainment only” Bracket DID have UCLA winning it all but I had long ago dropped out of contention thanks to the uninspired play of Georgetown, Tennessee, Marquette and others so it wasn’t a crushing blow for me personally. Sometimes my biggest joy in this type of tournament is to watch teams I dislike (like North Carolina, Duke, Michigan State) lose. My disdain for the elitist North Carolina fans who feel a sense of basketball entitlement because of the name on their jersey and who constantly whine when their “unbeatable, next greatest team of all time” gets upset during the tournament has reached the point where I openly root for their team’s failure.

As you can imagine, I was very excited about the way Kansas started their game against the Tar Heels. Since I had previously promised my son we could watch a DVD the one-sided affair on my screen seemed suggest that was as good a time as any. When I returned the game it was essentially over (much as it looked at the beginning) and only later did I find out the Heels did make a furious comeback only to fall short yet again (much to the dismay of many UNC fans I’m sure). Now before I start getting pummeled by comments and emails from the UNC Trolls, my father is from North Carolina and a HUGE UNC fan and is very humble when it comes to the Heels. Then again he’s not really on the internet talking smack and trying to make themselves feel better by equating their own self-worth and happiness based on the success of their UNC Basketball team. But I digress.

THE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME RATINGS

So how does Monday’s Final Matchup shape up? Memphis versus Kansas is probably the matchup CBS executives were LEAST hoping for. Simply because Memphis brings the smallest fanbase to the table. UCLA versus UNC was probably the preferred matchup with UCLA verse Kansas being the next best choice. Although let’s not get TOO enamored with the “following” of the UCLA Bruins. This isn’t the Wooden era UCLA program. After all we saw on Saturday that UCLA failed to bring the viewership that even the Georgetown vs Ohio State matchup did the year before (two MUCH smaller market teams) and the UCLA - Florida game of 2006 is currently on the hook as the second lowest rated Championship Game of the modern era.

Memphis and Kansas DO have a chance to make history and become the lowest rated CHAMPIONSHIP game - a distinction currently held by Georgia Tech versus Connecticut in 2005 (truly a craptacular matchup). In theory if this year’s Championship game continued the year’s trend they might reach that plateau but I’m guessing they will do no worse than third behind the Ga Tech-UConn (2004) game and the Florida-UCLA game (2006). What is even more interesting in regards to long term trends is that from 1975 to 1994 the NCAA Tournament Championship Game garnered an average of just under 30 million viewers per year. From 1995 to present the average viewership is just over 23 million per game. That’s an average decrease of over 6 million viewers with 11 of the lowest 15 ratings since 1975 being in the last 12 years and the eight LOWEST rated Championship Games of that period being the last EIGHT games played!

Over the last 8 years CBS has remained fairly steady in overall tournament ratings. Through regional finals (data from TVbythenumbers.com) the viewership has drifted from a high of 9.7 million in 2005 and a low of 7.2 in 2003 (the Iraq war) but tends to remain in the mid 8 millions. In this same period advertising revenue has risen from $318 in 2001 million to $520 million in 2007 with 2008 being predicted in the $545 million range. So despite the rollercoaster in ratings (at least in the championship game) overall the tournament remains a strong target for male advertising and marketing.

OTHER RATINGS FACTS

As a basketball fan I have always felt the most exciting part of the tournament is the first weekend. That’s when there is non-stop basketball going on for most of the day. It’s also where you can usually find the closest games and most of the buzzer beaters. And for us basketball enthusiasts, it’s still the point where most of us are still alive in the competition to win our local bracket pool. Yet this is actually the lowest rated weekend of the tournament averaging in the 5-8 million viewer range. The second weekend of the tournament (Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight) usually brings an increase of 1-2 million viewers before the Championship captures the highest number of viewers. Or perhaps most people find themselves still in their brackets up until the end while I am the guy who finds himself out after the first round like when I picked Arizona to win it all in 1993 and they lost to Santa Clara in the first round (Thanks Lute).

For the drop in ratings since 1995 no one really has the answer to that although there have been several theories. 1995 is the year that Kevin Garnett was drafted to the NBA, an event which started a trend of where the best prep basketball talent in the nation went straight to the NBA (Garnet, Kobe, LeBron, Amare, Dwight Howard). Could the lack of big name players and future NBA superstars be driving the loss of viewers? There is also the issue of over saturation. These days you can watch just about every college game if you want to pick up certain TV packages and even if you don’t the coverage on CBS and ESPN will give you a glimpse into most of the games being played. Combine that with the greatly expanded overall coverage of college basketball and perhaps the fan doesn’t see the Tournament games as such vital viewing anymore. Some people say the NCAA Bracket Pools cause people to lose interest as when their teams are eliminated they no longer feel the need to track the Tourney.

KANSAS VS MEMPHIS

Tonight’s matchup gives us a (mildly at least) interesting matchup. Because Memphis has been blowing teams out in the Tournament they have become the darling in this game. While I think the array of talent that a shadowy, unethical and underhanded recruiter like John Calipari has assembled is truly awesome . . . I don’t think people are giving an almost equally talented (and more experienced) Kansas team the proper credit. To me this is somewhat of a coaching matchup. Kansas has the bigger history of underachieving whereas Memphis seems to have squeezed as much as they should have out of their talent (a record 38 wins in a season and counting). With the way Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas Roberts have been playing the Tigers look nothing short of unstoppable. As such they have become the favorite for most college pundits and fans alike.

Memphis will push the ball and attempt to make it a fast paced game. Kansas is also loaded with athletes and can also thrive in an open court environment. Thus I expect the game to have a fast pace to it. However Kansas has as quick and long a team as you will find in the country. UCLA did not match up well versus Memphis but the Jayhawks have the athletes to not only play the Tigers game but also play the kind of defense that can frustrate a young team like Memphis. Kansas has a great rotation of bigs and should be able to take advantage of Memphis inside where the Tigers have to avoid foul trouble. The biggest weakness the Jayhawks have are the fact that they tend to play passive at times. This is the championship game however and I expect Kansas to cause problems with their length (blocked shots) and turn Memphis into a more perimeter oriented team where Memphis does not shoot exceptionally well.

Kansas wins this game by focusing on stopping or slowing down a couple key Tiger players and forcing Memphis to rush shots and turning into a more selfish offensive team (a common reaction when younger teams hit adversity). On the other end Kansas will present the quickest and most athletic team Memphis has had to play in this Tournament (much like the Tennessee team that won at Memphis was the quickest and most athletic team they faced in the regular season). Coaching will play an important part in this game. I’m not saying that Bill Self is a better coach than John “Dirty” Calipari but his team is older and will listen to their coach and execute his gameplan and in-game changes to a higher degree. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kansas mixing defenses and even playing some zone against the Tigers to induce them to launching a bunch of ill-advised three pointers. In a game of relative equal talent (although Memphis probably has more NBA players) the edge goes to the EXPERIENCE of Kansas.