But until then, he isn’t cracking my starting lineup until he works on:

A. Sharing the rock (just 3 assists/40)
B. Creating turnovers (0.7 steals/40)
C. Shooting at least 80% from the line (71% last year, actually something all the freshman can work on)

If he can do those things, I like a lineup featuring Lucas at point, Calathes (”good” at 1 through 3)at shooting guard, Parsons (”good”) at small forward, Eloy Vargas (who should beat out “average” Dan Werner) at PF, and Speights/Kadji at C.

But if he consistently plays like he did last year, he’s benched.

Shouldn’t be that big of a problem, though.

I expect Lucas to have a much improved sophomore season, much like Taurean Green, one of the best points ever at Florida.

He could probably have Peep like freshman numbers if all he wanted to do was jack up the ball like Peep. But there was a reason losing Anthony Roberson was addition by subtraction. Jai isn’t obsessed with his scoresheet.

After Lee Humphrey’s freshman season people laughed at me and called me crazy when I predicted he would average around 8 pts a game as a jr and be a double digit scorer as a senior. Now you can all laugh at me as I say that Lucus will be leading us deep into the NCAA tournament in his Jr and Sr season at UF. And I don’t mean he will be tagging along on the coattails of others. I mean he will be the leader and heart of the team who will take the big shot when it’s needed. Mark my words, he’s the key to future championships for Florida.

But on the flip side, Chandler Parsons was actually pretty good for the Gators.

Next year, he should tie up the 3 nicely.

It’s just that it didn’t make sense for me to multiply the WP48 by 5/6, and then divide up the minutes into chunks of 40 and come up with the same exact answer. So I left the WP48 alone and divided up the minutes into chucks of 48.

But just so you know, the WP40s are:

M. Speights = .331
N. Calathes = .203
C. Parsons = .168
D. Werner = .117
W. Hodge = .085
A. Tyus = .054
J. Mitchell = .008
J. Lucas = -.013
A. Allen = -.022

.083 is average, .167 is good, and .250 is excellent.

For WP48, that’s .100, .200, and .300, respectively.

1: The formula places less of an emphasis on scoring than normal. Consider the efficiency of the aforementioned:

M. Speights: 23.9 PP40
N. Calathes: 18.8 PP40
C. Parsons: 15.8 PP40
D. Werner: 13.3 PP40
W. Hodge: 13.6 PP40
A. Tyus: 13.5 PP40
J. Mitchell: 10.9 PP40
A. Allen: 15.4 PP40
J. Lucas: 11.2 PP40

In general, the effiency actually lines up pretty well with the overall productivity of the players as a whole.

But what to make of Allen, who is the Gators’ 4th most efficient scorer, but its worst producer per minute? On average, he only grabs one rebound per 13 minutes of play. Yes, 13 minutes! In that same span of time, Parsons would have grabbed about 2.5 rebounds, or Mitchell 2. And Parsons plays the same exact position!

Also, note that Lucas and Allen, ironically enough, were 1st and 2nd in 3PT%. So merely following the Billyball plan offensively doesn’t always work. Just ask the Phoenix Suns or Denver Nuggets.

I agree, these formulae aren’t perfect. But they help provide valuable insight into who helped the Gators and who didn’t.