The data I found on last year’s hoops team was fascinating. Chandler Parsons was the most productive player not named Speights or Calathes? Who would have guessed?

Dr. Berri’s methodology opens a whole new insight into statistics and results. So I decided to continue my research into Florida basketball. Feel free to correct me if any figures are inaccurate.

Exactly how did Donovan do it in ‘06 and ‘07? Balanced scoring was definitely a part of the equation, but the Win Score methodology puts a two-point field goal on par with a rebound and a steal. Without going into exhaustive detail (see “Why This Guy Cost the Gators a Bid”), here are the Wins Produced and WP48s after the 2005-2006 season. Note that every big guy on the team played both power forward and center, so I averaged the Win Score per minute to (.225+.215)/2 = .220:

Joakim Noah (F/C) = 9.1 Wins Produced, .449 WP48
Al Horford (F/C) = 7.0 Wins Produced, .331 WP48
Corey Brewer (SF) = 4.2 Wins Produced, .183 WP48
Lee Humphrey (SG) = 3.5 Wins Produced, .140 WP48
Taurean Green (PG) = 2.8 Wins Produced, .105 WP48
Chris Richard (F/C) = 2.0 Wins Produced, .143 WP48
David Huertas (SG) = 0.5 Wins Produced, .080 WP48
Adrian Moss (F/C) = -0.2 Wins Produced, -.027 WP48
Walter Hodge (SG) = -0.8 Wins Produced, -.048 WP48

Summation of Wins Produced = 28.1 Actual Wins = 33

Believe it or not, Taurean Green was right around average, and Lee Humphrey was only slightly more productive. Corey Brewer was pretty good, but not by much. David Huertas was O.K., and Walter Hodge wasn’t in his “average” form yet.

But Donovan’s frontcourt was good as gold. Joakim Noah and Al Horford were clearly #1 and #2 inside (No wonder the former was projected as a top-two pick in the draft that year), and Chris Richard wasn’t half-bad himself. Senior Adrian Moss was a slight anomaly, but he did provide an element of athleticism off the bench, not to mention 5 more fouls if the first three got into trouble.

Sadly, David Huertas was underrated at 2-guard, and the Gators are worse for it; he’s now 3rd at Ole Miss in scoring, assists, and steals. Walter Hodge has markedly improved from the time he was a freshman on campus, and could very well take some more positive steps.

But notice the disrepancy between Wins Produced and actual wins.

What happened? If the Gators were good, but not too special, why did this team overachieve and cut down the nets anyway? There may be several reasons, but I’ll keep it to what I think were the two most important.

First, the Win Score only mentions the statistics of the team itself; it says very little, if anything, about what the opponent did in response. This team was known for its rock-solid defense, and by holding its opponents to a lower-than-normal field goal percentage, Florida may have looked better than its results indicate.

Second, if you can recall, the Gators faced a resilient Georgetown team led by Roy Hibbert and Jeff Green. Billy Donovan’s teams famous for opening-round collapses, and this group shouldn’t have been any different. At the time, the Gators had 29 victories, tied for a school record.

To make a long story short, they won a close one to advance to the Elite Eight and proceeded to dispose of the rest of their opponents, including top seeded Villanova, by double-digits. So there was also a little bit of luck involved.

Nation, there is a silver lining to the cloud of last season. As freshmen, Nick Calathes and Chandler Parsons have been more productive on a per-minute basis than their sophomore counterparts. If Parsons stays out of foul trouble, he WILL be a star for this team. Mareese Speights did just as well as, if not better than, Al Horford statistics wise. His own per-minute production rivals even Noah’s last season. Dan Werner looks like he might fulfill the Chris Richard role next year. Eloy Vargas should do excellent at the 4. The pieces are coming together. The future looks bright. The only concern is if Speights signs an agent, ending his college eligibility. However, I believe that he’s getting honest opinions on his potential from scouts and coaches, and I applaud him for keeping his options open.

In a few days, I’ll discuss the second title season.