The productivity of Chandler Parsons compared to his predecessor at the small forward is certainly surprising.

When I once suggested that the former might even me MORE dangerous at the 3-spot, Gatorpilot said something to the effect of “Seriously? There’s only one C. Brew, and he was certainly a tenacious defender.”

So let’s consider the production of both over a 40-minute period. We’ll use Spiderman’s stats from last season (As we’ll see later, because he was better that year.)

Points:

Brewer 18.61
Parsons 15.75

Rebounds:

Brewer 6.57
Parsons 7.69

Assists:

Brewer 4.14
Parsons 2.74

Blocks:

Brewer 0.57
Parsons 0.43

Steals:

Brewer 2.62
Parsons 0.97

At first glance, it looks like Brewer is clearly the better player, doing worse only in rebounding. But if we look at the statistics, they tell a slightly different story.

Points

You win basketball games by scoring more points. Corey Brewer scores more points than Parsons. Therefore, Corey Brewer is (seemingly) more capable of winning a basketball game.

But is his offense based on taking more shots?

Points from field goals:

Brewer 14.36
Parsons 12.96

Field goals attempted:

Brewer 13.52
Parsons 11.72

Points per field goal:

Parsons 1.11
Brewer 1.06

Free throw percentage:

Brewer 72.3%
Parsons 62.7%

Verdict: Parsons more efficient from the field, but Brewer was better at the line. With the benefit of more practice at the gym, Chandler will improve in this area. Otherwise, he exectues better from the playbook.

Rebounds

Verdict: Brewer might have had fewer boards because Noah and Horford were taking everything, but there’s one uncoachable advantage Parsons does have.

He’s 200 pounds, Brewer is 185. And trust me, Parsons DOESN’T have the Freshman 15. He’s better able to muscle in for the boards, and a summer of S&C will help that.

Assists

Part of Spiderman’s edge in passing is due to his supporting cast. He had threats from beyond the arc in Taurean Green and Lee Humphrey, two future lottery picks in Horford and Noah, AND a bench with Walter Hodge, Mareesse Speights, and Chris Richard.

Parsons has Nick Calathes and Speights, a streaky Jai Lucas, an out-of-position Dan Werner, and a motley crew of frosh and sophs on the bench who need time to gel.

But even with that disparity, feast your eyes on:

Turnovers:

Parsons 1.94
Brewer 3.42

Assist-to-turnover ratio:

Parsons 1.41
Brewer 1.21

Verdict: A better ballhandler? As a freshman? Over a lottery pick? Seriously?

I’ll take that any day of the week.

Blocks

With Brewer’s minutes, Parsons would have 11 swats, which is still four shy of Brewer’s total.

Verdict: With Win Score only giving half a point per block, C-Brew is better, but not by much.

Steals

Here’s the one field where Brewer has an undeniable edge. Even with more turnovers,

Steal-turnover margin (Steals - turnovers):

Brewer -0.80
Parsons -0.97

Verdict: Maybe this was what GP meant by “great defender” But it does come at the risk of more fouls.

And speaking of which:

Personal fouls

Brewer 2.74
Parsons 3.22

Verdict: #2 is #1 by split decision. He can stay in the game, swipe the rock, and block just a tad better. However, Chandler’s weaknesses were primarily those of inexperience.

Parsons is more athletic. Parsons is more efficient from the field. Parsons is the better passer. Parsons holds on to the ball. Parsons will only get better with age. Parsons, Parsons, Parsons.

At this rate, the question isn’t *if* he will start, but when. Donovan clearly took care of the 3-spot.

P.S.: I finally figured out why the Wins Produced algorithm underestimates victories.

Teams do not always play their best basketball in the preseason. This can skew Win Score, and thus lead to a depreciated value.

From now on, I’ll credit Florida (or any other good team) with 4 bonus wins to help account for the disrepancy.