So the Gators were clearly favored to claim their second straight national title after every starter returned. Come April 2007, that happened as expected.

But how did the team change from the last year to this one?

A. Horford (PF/C) = 9.4 WP, .427 WP48 [+2.4, +.096]
J. Noah (PF/C) = 8.5 WP, .392 WP48 [-0.6, .-057]
C. Brewer (SF) = 4.8 WP, .219 WP48 [+0.6, +.036]
T. Green (PG) = 2.9 WP, .106 WP48 [+0.1, +.001]
M. Speights (PF/C) = 2.4 WP, .609 WP48
L. Humphrey (SG) = 1.6 WP, .062 WP48 [-1.9, -.078]
C. Richard (PF/C) = 1.1 WP, .069 WP48 [-0.9, -.074]
W. Hodge (SG) = 0.9 WP, .060 WP48 [+1.7, +.108]
J. Mitchell (SF) = 0.7 WP, .171 WP48
D. Werner (SF/PF) = -0.9 WP, -.125 WP48
Nonconference bonus = 4.0 WP

Summation of Wins Produced = 35.9 Actual wins = 35

By any measure, this is the single “greatest” basketball team in Gator history. However, if we look at the core group of players who returned, they only got better by 1.4 wins (28.1 + 4 + 1.4 = 33.7) But if we look deeper, we see a number of trends:

1. Al Horford and Walter Hodge had the most improvement of the seven returning guys. Hodge didn’t become “average”, but he didn’t set back the team either.

2. Corey Brewer got slightly better, while Taurean Green stayed neutral.

3. Everyone else had a dropoff, although Noah was still a very good (top-10) player.

However, looking at the freshmen shows one outstanding performer, Mo Speights. His numbers were skewed because he played a lot against cream puffs, but 2.4 wins is nothing to sneeze at. If anything, it helped take the team over the top, since Mitchell and Werner practically “cancelled” each other out.

In short, the Gators got better because:

A. They got more experienced

B. They hit the recruiting jackpot.

Last year’s team did not duplicate that level of play, but if we look at their top-5 WP48 producers compared to the “averaged” ’04s:

N. Calathes (.243) PG T. Green (.105)

W. Hodge (.102) SG L. Humphrey (.101)

C. Parsons (.201) SF C. Brewer (.201)

D. Werner (.140) PF J. Noah (.421)

M. Speights (.397) C A. Horford (.379)

We see that most of these players are just as, and in the case of Nick Calathes, even better than, the championship Gators - except at power forward.

Over the entire season, the lack of a second productive big man hurt this team on the inside.

By the way, if you think that Patrick Patterson would have provided the answer, think again:

2007-08 Gators with Patterson replacing Werner and Werner replacing Tyus

M. Speights = 7.2 WP
N. Calathes = 6.0 WP
C. Parsons = 3.1 WP
P. Patterson = 3.6 WP, .178 WP48
W. Hodge = 2.3 WP
D. Werner= 1.4 WP, .140 WP48
J. Mitchell = 0.1 WP
A. Allen = -0.2 WP
J. Lucas = -0.4 WP
Nonconference bonus = 4.0 WP

Summation of Wins Produced = 27.1

Florida Gators in 07-08 = 25.6 Wins Produced

And regardless of if Speights stays or goes, that makes Eloy Vargas very, very, very important for this squad.

Which brings me to Patterson’s real team: The Kentucky Wildcats.

I know that there are going to be UK fans out there who will interpret my Patterson comment as an indirect rag for his not signing with UF. First off, I’m far over that. Second, I want to provide my perspective on the Cats forgettable season (as a disinterested outsider)

But first off, a quick pop quiz:

Who was Kentucky’s most important player last season?

A. Patterson

B. Joe Crawford

C. Ramel Bradley

D. None of the above

For most fans, I’d suspect that they would answer (B) After all, Crawford was the senior, scored the most points, and provided a ray of hope for UK faithful amidst trying times.

But if we use the Win Score metric and a little educated guessing at positions, the results may surprise you:

The Kentucky Wildcats in 2007-08

Perry Stevenson (SF) = 3.5 WP, .224 WP48

Patrick Patterson (PF) = 3.3 WP, .178 WP48

Ramel Bradley (PG) = 2.6 WP, .120 WP48

Derrick Jasper (SG/SF) = 1.7 WP, .135 WP48

Joe Crawford (SG) = 1.4 WP, .065 WP48

Ramon Harris (SG/SF) = 1.2 WP, .098 WP48

Jodie Meeks (PG) = -0.1 WP, -.021 WP48

Michael Porter (PG) = -0.9 WP, -.108 WP48

Mark Coury (C) = -0.9 WP, -.131 WP48

I know what you must be thinking about right now. So I’ll start with Perry.

Despite only scoring 6 points per game, he was stellar at plenty of stuff for UK*:

1st in field goal percentage

1st in shot blocks

2nd in rebounds

2nd in steals

3rd in free throw percentage

*Amongst players who clocked at least 200 minutes

Unfortunately, he was also tied for 1st in personal fouls and was whistled out 5 different times, which limited his minutes and his effectiveness on the court.

As far as Crawford, Patterson, and Bradley were concerned, they took up a lot of offense:

Percentage of UK’s scoring statistics attributed to Big Three

67.2% of points
64.7% of field goals attempted
66.7% of all 3-PT attempted
66.5% of all 3-PT made
65.2% of all free throws tried
69.5% of all free throws made

They only make up 60% of Kentucky’s starting lineup! But elsewhere:

52.7% of all assists
41.7% of all steals
41.1% of all rebounding
28.2% of all blocks

Heck, they even took up 46.9% of all minutes played (Read: 3 “starters”)

The drop in rebounding and shot-blocking can be attributed in part to Crawford and Harris making up the backcourt. But that isn’t the moral of the story.

In short, to improve upon their season, UK will need DeAndre Liggins to share the wealth to the entire team, Josh Harrellson to own the glass, and Patterson to take on a leadership role.

I rest my case.

P.S.: I think Pitino’s decision to coach at Louisville was unethical.