First off, I wish the softball team good luck in the College World Series from here on. They certainly didn’t have it in their first game against Louisiana-Lafayette.

And now for something (almost) completely different.

As everybody knows, after Florida went to the NIT, Billy Donovan locked his players out of their facility and made them work in an older gym. Allegedly, the basketball team played three spirited games before finally bowing out against UMass.

And if we look at efficiency differential, there would be reason to believe such. In all 36 games in 2007-08, the Gators averaged a 13.0 efficiency rating. However, in their 4 NIT games, the Gators scored 125.4 points per 100 offensive possessions while allowing only 107.7 on defense, resulting in a differential of 17.7.

So the team was better in spite of a drop in offensive performance. However, they played a stingy enough defense to hold their own.

But in looking at Win Scores per minute from the NIT [comparison to all of ‘08 in brackets]:

M. Speights = .385 [-.021]
N. Calathes = .299 [+.081]
D. Werner = .259 [+.022]
W. Hodge = .225 [+.098]
C. Parsons = .221 [+.009]
J. Lucas = -.028 [-.086]

We see mixed results. This is a small sample, but there might be some clues to how this group will perform in 2009.

I picked these six players because they were the biggest contributors to the Gators’ success, and five of them are bound to see a lot of court time next season. In short, this was the team’s core.

First off, Speights. On the whole, he performed worse in the NIT than his “averaged” form, but stats don’t tell the entire story. He got better as time went on, posting WS/Min of .214, .447, .400, and .500 in chronological order. Thus, his San Diego State game was the biggest reason for his drop. And if these were indeed his last games in a Florida uniform, he did pretty darn well.

Verdict: Discipline successful

Contrary to popular belief, Chandler Parsons wasn’t the only freshman who got better with the passage of time. Note that Calathes shot 7-11, 3-7, and 3-8 from the field in the three NIT wins, but went 5-19 in the UMass game. In other words, he tends to be at his best when he takes fewer shots but gets teammates involved.
As evidence, look at his numbers in the various other losses:

Ohio State: 1-9

Ole Miss: 6-15

Arkansas: 3-12

Tennessee: 4-10

Vanderbilt: 5-13

Mississippi State: 6-14

Tennessee: 7-15

Alabama: 3-12

As long as he learns the right lessons from UMass, he’s golden

Verdict: Discipline successful

Hodge’s progress was underestimated throughout the postseason. I certainly hope he’s like this next season.

Verdict: Discipline successful

Werner and Parsons didn’t have huge improvements, but there are upsides. Dan is a slightly-above average 4 but a menace at 3. Parsons needs more minutes than he’s gotten all last year.

Verdict: Unclear

However, the most worrisome development was with Jai Lucas. As far as progress was concerned, he was the anti-Speights, posting WS/Min of .103, -.038, -.063, and -.125 at San Diego State, Creighton, Arizona State, and UMass, respectively.

Negative Win Scores are bad for any position, much less Win Scores that get smaller as the competition gets tougher.

He’s a freshman and has the opportunity to make some tremendous strides. But if Donovan’s tactics didn’t help, the signs aren’t good.

I’m concerned

Verdict: Development worrisome