1-3. Twenty-five percent. One out of four.

That was Florida’s record last year in games decided by a touchdown or less. With a lot of experience and a little luck, the championship Gators from two years ago went a perfect 5-0. They might have needed a Tim Tebow run at fourth down against Tennessee and a field goal block by Jarvis Moss against South Carolina, but the 100th edition of the Orange and Blue knew how to win with the game on the line.

The only close win last year? Ole Miss, where Tebow himself shouldered the burden of melting the clock in Oxford. Alas, such is the mark of a youthful squad in the SEC.

And hence we come to a weakness of last year’s team, one that cannot be blamed on defense alone. They have not owned the fourth quarter, with miscues ranging from allowing Auburn to get in field goal range to failing to score on last-minute touchdown drives against LSU and Michigan. Nevertheless, possibly excluding Georgia, UF has remained competitive in every single game. They might be green, but their ceiling is high.

Why is this important? For any good team, there WILL be close games in the season. Big matchups lie in wait on the horizon. Bowl berths and poll rankings hinge on last second plays. Heismans are won and lost on these big games.

And for this squad, one Saturday lies circled on the calendar: November 1, 2008. When they travel to Jacksonville, they have the opportunity to exorcise the demons of last year’s loss to the hated Bulldogs. An SEC East title would be within striking distance. A national championship berth? Certainly plausible. Maybe even another Heisman on the horizon.

But with a loss, there will be talk of Florida’s lost swagger, of only two wins in the last five years. Fairly or not, critics could question Tim Tebow’s ability to lead a team to the promised land. Lindsay Scott’s ghost could haunt this team.

And for those who still consider Florida nearly invincible, consider the cautionary tale of USC West three seasons ago. Led by the dynamic duo of Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart, SoCal was looking for their second straight undisputed BCS title. The Trojan offense was so prolific that they only played in two really close games that entire season. They beat Notre Dame 34-31 after Bush shoved Leinart across the goal line for the game-winning possession.

But as everybody knows, they lost to Texas in a Rose Bowl shootout that remains one of the best games in college football history. To this day, one could still divide Trojan football of the Pete Carroll era into two halves: the juggernaut before the loss, and the highly competitive yet less powerful team after it.

This team could be so close. And yet, they could also be right there. Only time and fate will tell.