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OrangeandBlueHue Roundtable, August 19

thinker.jpgOrangeandBlueHue presents the first in a season long series of discussions.  Our contributors (Vince Gagliano, KelticGator and Gatorpilot) are presented with three questions to respond to.  So with the season less than two weeks ago let’s get things started.  Below are the results of Roundtable Number One.

 

Question #1:  What players do you expect to provide the biggest impact on both offense and defense.  Pick one player from each team that will provide something that last year’s team lacked.  It can be a new starter or someone who will take his game to a new level.  For example Tim Tebow wouldn’t be a selection unless you think he is going to far exceed what he accomplished last year.          

Vincent Gagliano:
Offense: Aaron Hernandez.  One of the weaknesses of the Gator offense last year was a lack of physical playmakers.  Tim Tebow was the only player in the backfield with the strength to muscle past defenders and have the hands to boot.  And it was no accident that Florida suffered even more when Andre Caldwell sat out a few games; his outstanding upper body strength complemented Percy Harvin’s speed nicely.  I almost picked Carl Moore for this one, but since UF didn’t lack that physical receiver, he’ll fill Bubba’s shoes nicely.  Expect the sophomore’s catches to rise with Cornelius Ingram’s ACL injury.

Defense: Joe Haden.  With the Gators’ well-documented secondary problems last season, it’s tough not to pick a defensive back.  Major Wright is clearly one of the leaders on the other side of the ball, and Will Hill’s athleticism provides a nice foundation for success at the other safety spot.

Haden is a physical specimen with a year under his belt.  Add to the fact that he’s cut his teeth against a high-powered offense, and you have the ingredients for a breakout year.

KelticGator:
Offense: I like Emmanuel Moody to change the way teams prepare for Florida’s offense.  I know Chris Rainey is going to make a big splash if he can stay healthy and both he and Brandon James can do a lot of damage out of the slot but I think Moody brings that combination of size, speed and quickness that we’ve been missing at the running back position since Meyer arrived.  Right now Florida’s best RB is a WR named Percy Harvin.  If Moody stays healthy I think by the end of the year he will be mentioned with some of the best backs in the country.

Defense: I think Carlos Dunlap will have the biggest impact on the team.  Sure, he’s received a lot of hype but most of it is deserved.  He’s a physical freak who can be dominant on the line.  Combine with an improved set of tackles, more depth all along the line to keep players fresh and a much improved secondary and you have the makings for a guy who makes a lot of plays in the backfield.  I expect the secondary to be much improved but no one player will have the impact of Dunlap.  I think just about every CB and DB you see out there this year will be better than what we played with last year but none of them can dominate a game like a great lineman. 

Gatorpilot:
Offense: I’m going to go with Kestahn Moore, strangely enough.  I know he’s got a reputation for being a fumbler, and it’s well-deserved; last year I gave him a huge ration of crap (literally) when he managed to be involved in four disastrous plays against Georgia, all of which led to turnovers and helped the Dawgs win.  In the off-season I was excited about Emmanuel Moody, but I have this feeling based on what the coaches are saying and what I hear out of practice that Kestahn is going to be the go-to power back we’ve been craving ever since DeShawn Wynn had that big game against Miami years and years ago.  I think he’s finally going to emerge and challenge the defense right up the middle, which is something our offense has lacked whenever someone other than Tebow was running the ball.

Defense: Well, everyone is obviously talking about Carlos Dunlap, who is supposedly the new “Freak” in the line of DEs started by Jevon Kearse.  Since he’s too obvious, I’ll go with Major Wright.  By his own description in a GatorCountry interview he wasn’t really sure what he was supposed to be doing at his safety position last year, but this year is completely on the same page as the defense and his DC.  I like him to be a “Reggie Nelson-lite” in his sophomore year.

Question #2:  Which game do you feel is the most dangerous for the Gators this year and why.

Vincent Gagliano:
LSU.  Georgia is the toughest game on the schedule, but the Gators will not be unprepared.  Not after a loss and the humiliation of UGA’s endzone dance.  The Tigers come several weeks after Tennessee in Knoxville, but two weeks before Georgia.  Bear in mind, LSU won a national championship in spite of losing former top pick JaMarcus Russell and hard-hitter LaRon Landry.  Playing in the Swamp provides the danger of complacency for this squad.   Add to the fact that Les Miles isn’t afraid to take risks, and you have the perfect cocktail for a trap game.

KelticGator:
If this was the most talented team we will face it would be Georgia but the most difficult game has to have certain characteristics.  Is it a home game or away?  Is it sandwiched between other games or not?  Tennessee will be the first SEC game of the season so the focus will be there.  The LSU and South Carolina games are in the Swamp so there are built in advantages there.  The game that scares me the most is . . . Arkansas.  Yes that’s right, the Hogs.  Playing in Razorback Stadium is never easy.  Florida will be coming off the emotional season opener against Tennessee followed by a revenge game (of sorts) against Mississippi where the team will look to prove last years near late game collapse was a fluke.  Then comes Arkansas who after playing Texas and Alabama could have a mediocre record of 2-2.  But Arkansas has some intangibles.  Petrino will have an extra week to prepare for Florida.  He will be a third of the way into the season while installing a new offense.  Arkansas will bring SEC talent into a contest where it will be Daniel versus Goliath.  A rabid crowd, highly prepared Arkansas squad versus an unmotivated Gator team could make this a game that leads to some serious sweats and cringing for Florida fans.  Should Arkansas come into the game at 3-1 beating either Alabama or Texas then you can include confidence into the list of intangibles for the Razorbacks.

Gatorpilot:
I’m nervous about Tennessee.  No one is talking about the Vols, but they are going to have a really good defense and might be better than expected on offense.  Jonathan Crompton has big-game experience and seems like he could be something more than a serviceable SEC quarterback.  Tennessee was humiliated by the Gators last year (59-20) and I’m nervous they might be “lying in wait” for us in Knoxville.  All this talk about Georgia, who we play in November, is starting to become a concern.  Georgia is irrelevant right now.

Question #3: Which SEC team do you feel is the most overrated and which is the most underrated.

Vincent Gagliano:
Most underrated SEC team: Tennessee.  Amidst all the hubbub about Florida and Georgia, the Vols remain lurking in the background.  New running back coach Kenny Carter Stan Drayton, a former Florida assistant, gets to work with Arian Foster, who is poised to become UT’s career rushing leader.  Quarterback Johnathan Crompton has spent two years learning behind Eric Ainge.  Not to mention, they play Florida, Mississippi State, and Alabama at Neyland Stadium.  Might Phillip Fulmer feel the warmth of the hot seat just a tad?  He has a good chance to pleasantly surprise.

Most overrated SEC team: Georgia.  Admittedly, this sounds heretical.  The Top Dawgs made a case to play in the title game and return Knowshon Moreno and Matt Stafford.  And after sticking it to Colt Brennan and undefeated Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl, who can blame them for being so high up?  But behind the hype, there are potentially fatal flaws:

1.  Where is the breakaway wide receiver?  We certainly don’t hear about one on ESPN.  Sean Bailey caught 39 passes for 615 yards, Mohammed Massaquoi 32 for 491.  While good, these aren’t exactly Hines Ward-type stats.  At first glance, Moreno and Stafford look fine next to Tebow and Harvin.  But while the Gators have running backs who complement each other nicely and allow for a “tailback-by-committee” approach, the Bulldogs don’t look as if they have this luxury on the air.

Without a primary target, Matt Stafford will suffer in the pocket.

2.  And speaking of which, #7 isn’t quite Fran Tarkenton.  Passing for 2523 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions is decent, but certainly not at a Heisman level.  Yes, he has a better record as a starting QB than Tim Tebow does.  But the problem with comparing quarterbacks to records is that a QB must also be evaluated by the team he plays with.  If Stafford played for Florida, does anyone seriously think that he would’ve led that team to 10 wins that season?  It’s doubtful, even for the most loyal UGA fans.  UF was just too depleted from losing guys in that title season to make a serious run the next year.  On the other hand, Tebow could have very well led the Dawgs to an SEC East title, maybe even an SEC championship, and certainly a BCS bowl.  Between playing with one of the top defenses in the country and having Moreno help out with rushing, his presence would have been ripe with potential for the Dawgs.

3.  Scheduling.  For starters, they travel to Arizona State and take on a good, not great Pac-10 squad.  Then, they face Alabama and Tennessee in back-to-back weeks between the hedges.  After that, they travel to Baton Rouge to play the defending champion Tigers, to Lexington and resurgent Kentucky, AND Jordin-Hare to face Auburn, who is implementing a new spread offense.  Add that to facing Florida in Jacksonville and playing in the SEC championship game, and it’s hard to see the Dawgs navigating successfully through it all. 

4.  Complacency.  The Dawgs played with heart against the Gators last year in the 42-30 win.  They were tired of all the losing and did something about it.  But UGA struggled against South Carolina (L 12-16), Alabama (W 26-23), Vanderbilt (W 20-17), and Troy (W 44-34)  They got much of their #1 ranking due to their surge in the previous season.  But that was then and this is now.  Maybe, just maybe, the bubble will burst.  No, I’m not just saying this because I write for a UF blog.

KelticGator:
Cocksrock.jpgThe most underrated team in the league is South Carolina.  This team has all the stamps of an SEC Champion of past eras.  Unfortunately in THIS era of SEC football it will likely have to settle for a New Years Day Bowl.  Playing in the toughest division of the toughest league in the country means that South Carolina is set to suffer the same fate as Georgia – having one of their best teams when they are forced to play a murderous schedule.  If this same team played 3-5 years ago it could very well end up SEC Champion.  Alas, it will have to be satisfied with being in the race and playing spoiler.  Still, Spurrier was brought to Columbia to make the Gamecocks competitive and an upper echelon SEC team and this could very well be the first of those such squads.

Auburn is the most overrated team in the SEC.  To be overrated takes high expectations.  Sure Georgia might never live up to the expectations they have leapt upon them but that’s more about scheduling than talent.  LSU could easily slip up despite their plethora of NFL caliber talent because of a lack of leadership at the key offensive position (quarterback).  But Auburn is being touted by some to be a favorite to win the entire conference and why?  They are installing an entirely new offense despite not having the type of athletes that such an offense needs to be productive.  They have lost key players from last year’s defense to either injury (Savage) or graduation (Groves) they will need more offensive support to win the conference.  I know Auburn will field a very good defense but it will need to be dominant to make up for the early season struggles on the other side of the ball.  I’m not sure Kodi Burns will ever live up to the hype following a moderately productive freshman season.  Auburn should win 8 or 9 games but won’t win the SEC West.

Gatorpilot:
I think Auburn isn’t in any real contention for the SEC this year, despite talk that they could win the west.  But then again I think they’re overrated every year we play them, and I’m usually wrong, so take that with a grain of salt.  As for most underrated, I’ll go with their arch nemesis, Alabama.  I think the Crimson Tide will surprise a lot of people this year.  It’s Saban’s second year, he has some killer recruits on the field, and I think if you give J.P. Wilson some protection he can be a very good quarterback.  If Bama can get past LSU I think they have a real shot at winning the west.

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Addendum, Stan Drayton, not Kenny Carter, is the current UT and ex-UF running backs coach.

Sorry Vince, I know you sent me that correction before I posted this and like a dumb*ss, I forgot to make the change. My bad folks.

Apology accepted.

While I agree with Gatorpilot that Alabama will should have a good team this year, I don’t see them winning more than nine games, at best.

They play almost all of their tough games outside Alabama: Clemson in Atlanta, at Arkansas and Georgia back to back, at Tennessee and at LSU. Most of their home games are against teams they could be expected to beat on the road bringing only half their team: Tulane, Western Kentucky, Arkansas State, and Kentucky. Ol Miss may give them a fight if their new hotshot QB pans out.

Bama plays Miss State at home, but there could be a surprise there if the Tide is looking ahead to Auburn (a team they haven’t beaten in six seasons).

Alabama’s schedule is a lot like Georgia’s, except Alabama doesn’t have Georgia’s talent.



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