Auburn graced us with their presence in the O’Connell Center on Saturday, and treated the Gators to a tough, competitive SEC matchup which ultimately fell in the Gators’ favor. Final was 72-56, although the game was quite a bit tighter than that, particularly in the first half.

The character and personality of this team is starting to emerge. This squad is led by two of its freshmen, Nick Calathes and Jai Lucas, both of whom are lights-out competitors with poise beyond their years. They are prodigious scorers, as they both racked up 16 points apiece, although Calathes is as valuable for his passing as he is his shooting. Their supporting cast of Dan Werner (Mr. Versatile), Walter Hodge (Cool Hand Luke) and a bench filled with talented frosh such as Chandler Parsons, Alex Tyus, and Adam Allen makes for a team which can push the tempo, score in bunches and play great team ball. Even the pressure defense is starting to shape up. Freshmen, people! We’re talking freshmen here!

Note that I left Marreese Speights off this list. Yes, yes, I know: the box score shows that Speights had a good game. He notched 14 points and 8 rebounds in 28 minutes. But stats don’t tell the full story in this case. At this point of the season, Mo’s development is not where most had hoped it would be. Speights is the first to get winded and seems willing to allow opposing bigs to have their way with him in the low post, although he occasionally “snaps out of it” and shows flashes of brilliance.

Two games into SEC play, we should not have this problem, not with the player most felt would be the Gators’ MVP this year.

Mo is a sophomore and has now started a total of two SEC games, so he is a long way off from being written off by anyone, least of all me. With the coaching staff we have in place at Florida, odds favor Speights’ growth and development into being the best he can be. If the glimpses of his potential prove to be true, he is certainly capable of becoming an All-SEC center.
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Auburn takes on our Gators in the O’Connell Center today. Tip is at 12:00PM ET.

At first glance, you’ve got to really like Florida’s chances in this game. Due to injuries, Auburn is suffering from an unfortunate bench depth problem and have only 7 guys they can play. Three of those players — guards Quantez Robertson, Rasheem Barrett and DeWayne Reed — played 38 minutes or more in their last game against Arkansas. Auburn head coach Jeff Lebo simply has no alternative. His players have to put up big minutes every game unless he wants to put four players on the floor. They literally limped out of Beard-Eaves-Memorial Coliseum and got on a plane to head straight to Gainesville.

Which was Thursday night. That game ended less than 37 hours before today’s contest is scheduled to begin.

Florida, meanwhile, comes in with three full days of rest and the momentum gained from a surprising upset of Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Florida is obviously favored, although I’m worried that this youthful squad might be susceptible to “big win hangover.” The Gators are good, but they’re not good enough to coast through an SEC game. Any SEC game.

Starting conference play with two in a row would be a great help to Florida’s chances to keep their NCAA tournament streak alive. The SEC is generally ‘down’ this season, but that’s a double-edged sword for UF; while it’ll be easier to win a few more games, it will also be harder to impress the tournament committee with the quality of those wins. As such, I think the Gators will need to win 10 of their 16 conference games, which means we’ll have to take care of business and do the following at minimum:

• - get a split with either Tennessee or Vandy (1 game)
• - win both against Kentucky (2 games)
• - beat Georgia and South Carolina twice (4 games)
• - beat LSU (1 game)

Assuming we beat Auburn today, that’ll add the 10th win since the Bama road win started things off earlier in the week.

Is this doable? Yes, although the hardest of these tasks is getting a split with Vandy or Tennessee; beating Kentucky on the road won’t be easy, either. It also leaves zero margin for error. If the Gators are caught napping in any of these games, we’ll have to pull out a road win against Mississippi State or Ole Miss, which I think would be very tough, or Arkansas, which is probably our best fallback “must-win” game if any of the above don’t come through. Winning at least one tournament game would push us to 11 wins, and I don’t think the two-time defending national champions are left out of the Big Dance with 11 conference wins, 25 total victories and road Ws against five conference opponents.

As such I view today’s game against Auburn to be a critical opportunity for the Gators. They must capitalize to keep the train rolling. I reiterate: this squad is too young and too inexperienced to take anything for granted. View today’s game against the Tigers as a challenge, because despite the circumstances, that is what it will be. Feel free to comment on our gameday open thread, below. Go Gators.

In his article “Can AU keep Tubs on the Plains“, Paul Finebaum of the Register Herald has addressed a possible resolution to the crisis at Auburn University; a crisis named Tommy Tuberville. Auburn sits at 3 wins and 2 losses for the season. Ahead the Tigers face road games at Arkansas, LSU and Georgia and home games against Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and Alabama. While the home games seem manageable the road slate is grueling and lets not forget Auburn’s two losses this year have been at home and they trailed late in the fourth quarter at home in their season opener. Should the Tigers play hard the rest of the year and upset a few teams they could still be looking at an 8-4 season.

The problem at Auburn is not as much what Auburn has done, they are essentially the same program that went undefeated in 2003, but instead what the rest of the league has done. The environment that pushed the Tigers to the top in 2004 has changed drastically in 2007. This isn’t the same league it once was. As traditional programs like Florida and LSU have regained prominence, new powers like South Carolina and Kentucky have emerged to compete with the likes of Auburn, Georgia and Tennessee. A league that boasts of having the best football talent and passion now combines it with the highest paid and accomplished coaching fraternity in the country.

Tuberville may have stopped the hemorrhaging with the Florida upset but he’s not stupid. He knows the game has changed in these parts with Nick Saban. He also knows that he is always going to have to prove himself at Auburn and his relationship with the Auburn Board of Trustees will remain what it currently is — non-existent.

The two early season losses pushed Tubberville to the limit making the Florida game a “must win game” just 5 games into the season.

The Auburn coach has done a very nice job so far of saving this season from a complete disaster. Much credit should go to him. Tuberville remained patient when some of his Auburn fans were ready to jump ship on Brandon Cox and the program.

But long term the progonosis is not good. As Saban exerts his influence over the state Auburn fans and boosters have lost faith in their head coach. Tuberville has always been a good coach and solid recruiter but surrounded by programs with great coaches and recruiters something has to give. Auburn will never drop to the level of an Ole Miss or perhaps even Arkansas but they look to be squarely stuck in the middle tier of the SEC for then near future. But there may be a way for both Auburn AND Tuberville to come out ahead in this situation. Another coach with ties to the state of Alabama is on the hotseat: Texas A&M coach Dennis “The Menace” Franchoine

In the event he is pushed out the door (and if put to a vote of the Aggie Nation, he would go packing), Tuberville would emerge at or near the top of anyone’s list of top contenders for the job. He might also be hotly pursed by Arkansas after the expected removal of Houston Nutt.
Tubs knows the terrain in Aggieland, having spent a brief period of time out there as R.C. Slocum’s defensive coordinator. He is a close friend and confidant to Slocum, who still carries weight with high-ranking boosters.

Tuberville would seem the perfect fit in Aggieland. Tommy has the affable personality that Franchione lacks, he will be able to recruit the fertile grounds of Texas, a state which can support far more programs with top shelf talent than Alabama can, and Tuberville knows how to win big games. In the Big 12 the season is largely about average games and a few big games - aka OU and Texas. When the underdog Tuberville knows how to go for broke and turn into the riverboat gambler that he was once known for. As the favorite the Auburn coach tends to go conservative and play the odds which leads to boring games and the annual upset or two.

The biggest problem with the situation on the Plains is that following the Bobby Petrino fiasco, a huge buyout was included into Tommy’s contract. This restricts not only Auburn from firing him but also HIS leaving the program. This means that if Tommy is fired the University has a 6 million contract buyout but the same goes for Tuberville should he elect to leave. In the current situation however, this might be a non-issue.

What about the $6 million buyout for Tuberville? If he left, he supposedly would have to pay, just like Auburn would have to pay if he were fired.
In life, and particularly in college football, everything is negotiable.

Tuberville is a man of character and would never admit to entertaining another job offer. While at Ole Miss he made the same denials about the Auburn position. This is something that will not be resolved until after the season. Tuberville is married to Auburn University but both parties are growing more and more estranged. Is this the opportunity for both sides to come to an mutually amicable divorce? If so, it might turn out that the only big name “firing” in the SEC coaching ranks this year takes place in Knoxville. 

For all those Auburn fans who read my doomsday prognostications, I see you have returned for me to take back all I have said.  I am to now state that Tommy Tuberville is a great coach and Auburn will soon be playing for SEC and National Championships.  HA! HA! HA!  Sorry, . . . even typing that makes me laugh.  People . . . get the hell out of here!!!  (a phrase for disbelief not a statement that you cannot come here and share your differing opinions).  Auburn is freakin 3 AND 2!!!  What is that?  A 60% winning percentage almost halfway into the season with the meat of their SEC schedule lying ahead?

If anything, this only serves to PROVE my point.  Auburn is good enough to beat UF on the road yet they can’t beat Mississippi State at home?  Even if you admit that South Florida was an understandable loss (accepting that the Bulls are just a more talented and better coached program) Tuberville looks more and more like a Ron Zook clone.  In 2005 - Beat Alabama lose to Wisconsin.  In 2006 - Beat LSU and lose to Arkansas at home, beat Florida and lose to Georgia at home.  Now that they have beaten Florida who is the next unranked team to upset them?  Vandy?  Arkansas again?  Ole Miss?

If Tuberville pulls out a 10-3 season I will give him his due, aside from that . . . get used to losing on the Plains.  Auburn has the talent to beat Florida and Alabama this year but it could be the last time those two things ever occur in the same season (and might even not happen individually for quite a while).  Tommy’s last recruiting class was very thin (once you take into account that a third of a highly touted class never made it to campus) and this year’s looks to be shaping up to make last years class look awesome.  Auburn will not compete in the SEC with Tuberville at a high level.  At an Arkansas level, sure.  Better than Ole Miss and Mississippi State, definitely.  At a Florida, Georgia, LSU or Alabama level?  NO!

Auburn will go 8-5 or 9-4 this year.  Their most dominant defensive presence, Quentin Groves (the best player on their team IMO), is now hobbled with foot problems and even when he returns later in the year will not be able to get the push he is famous for.  Their offensive line is young and inept.  Their senior quarterback is shell-shocked from years of poor pass protection and their young quarterback is lost and if not protected better will end up as guy-shy and battered as Cox.

The Tigers will get worse as the year goes along and there is one reason for that.  Depth, they don’t have any (see the poor recruiting discussion from above).  As the injuries mount (yes the yearly excuse from Tiger fans) the team play will get worse.  The drop-off from starter to backup is more precipitous than at a lot of schools.  This isn’t just a problem at Auburn (see Alabama and Florida State) but it means you are not prepared for the future.  Saban has an excuse as he inherited someone else’s team.  Tuberville?  Had the top team in the league 3 years ago and has been at Auburn for almost a decade.  There’s no excuse for that (Other than those damnable NCAA Academic standards!!!).

This is bottom line for Auburn - they have top 3 or 4 SEC caliber talent and experience in their starters but will finish 6th or 7th in the league.  Take out Tuberville and put in a Bob Stoops, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Steve Spurrier, Jeff Tedford, Jim Tressel, Dennis Erickson, Rich Rodriguez, etc, etc and Auburn would be fighting with LSU for the West and SEC title.  As it stands they are playing for the Peach or Liberty bowl.  At the end of the year I will revisit “Tommy the Tube” and either give him his props or state the obvious again for you folks.

At Florida we recognized that Lon Kruger and Ron Zook had some success but just weren’t getting the job done in the long run.  Maybe Auburn expectations just aren’t high enough to recognize they could do better.

I’ve finally managed to watch the game tape. Wasn’t easy; that’s a pretty ugly looking home football team out there on Florida Field.

But with knowledge comes understanding. I’ve come away feeling better about the loss than I did initially.

Why? Because although Auburn outplayed, outcoached, and outscored the Gators, Florida was a few mistakes away from winning a game they had no business losing.

Total respect to the Tigers, but this shouldn’t have happened. The advantage of the Swamp coupled with one of the SEC’s best offenses should not have allowed Auburn to stay in this game. But after watching the tape, I see a team which is getting better and will give LSU a serious run for their money next week.

You heard me correctly: whatever the line is against LSU, the Gators will cover, and stand probably a 40/60 chance of winning the game.

3 reasons we lost, after the jump.

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You’re better than us.

Yes. We acknowledge your superiority. Your coach outcoached us. Your team outplayed us. You beat us at home, in the Swamp, which has never happened in the Urban Meyer era. You’re also better-looking and smarter than us.

Somehow, some way, you have our number. Even in a year in which you field one of your weaker teams, you still find a way to beat us. Your senior quarterback, who played so poorly in his first few games that the Auburn coaching staff burned a freshman’s redshirt, looked like an All-American against our defense. And our offense, supposedly ready to ring up 500 yards and 50 points against the New England Patriots, couldn’t get out of its own way for a half of football, then squandered multiple opportunities to eak out a win in the 4th quarter.

You beat us twice in a row, which sucks. You get to crow for the next five years or so, or until we face off in the SEC Championship game (which if we did, you’d probably win.) Our beloved Baby Rhino, Tim Tebow, might never log a win against the mighty Auburn Tigers.

But at the end of the day, we thank you. Our formerly inflated, biggie-sized self-worth, which came due to our 59-20 trouncing of Tennessee, can now be found on the 99-cent value meal menu. We thought we were unstoppable, and that a close call against one of the SEC’s worst teams was due to a bunch of kids taking their first road trip. We were wrong. We now realize that the Volunteer Abuse Game was an aberration, that Troy stacking 31 points on us in the Swamp should have been a dire warning, and every quarterback we play, not just Ole Miss’ walk-on, is going to look like a Heisman candidate against our defense.

Now we know Tim Tebow is a mere mortal. We know that if one or two of our best receivers are dinged up it will be hard to win a lot of games. We know that our team is only ‘pretty good’ in the SEC scheme and that games against Kentucky, South Carolina, and Georgia will be require every last shred of effort and luck to win. We refuse to even think about playing LSU at this time, as the thought makes us physically ill. We thank you because now that our team has been exposed, we can lower our unrealistic national title repeat aspirations and work our damnedest at making an appearance in the SEC Title game and a January bowl.

After watching South Florida beat West Virginia and Mississippi State give Spurrier’s Gamecocks every last bit they could handle (with their backup QB, no less), it’s obvious that your two early losses weren’t embarassing at all. South Florida is a Top 10 team, Mississippi State is much-improved from 2006, and Brandon Cox picked a hell of a night to put it all together. Dude couldn’t miss. Congratulations, you have a very good football team and you won a game in some of the most hostile conditions imaginable.

My hat’s off to you, Auburn. Now please excuse me while I go throw up again.

I can’t harp on it any more, Auburn is not an elite college football program.  Tuberville was a mediocre coach before the miracle year of 2004 and somehow he gets far more love from the press than he deserves because he was “cheated” from a chance at a national title.  The 2004 Auburn team was a mirage.  The only thing those Tigers were cheated from is a blowout loss in a Title game matchup.  Instead they were able to (barely) beat an inferior Virginia Tech team and at least claim they were undefeated.  I doubt Auburn could have beaten Oklahoma let alone Matt Leinhart and Reggie Bush’s USC squad.  That would have just ended up being an embarrassment to the league.
 
Let us put Auburn in perspective.  Alabama is a state with a high football passion and produces a fair share of quality athletes.  Tuberville’s heyday was helped considerably by the flagship program of the state, the University of Alabama, being on probation and in turmoil during Tuberville’s rise.  It was during this time that Auburn was able to lure talented players like Jason Campbell, Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown (not to mention Giants running back Brandon Jacobs who transferred to Southern Illinois for playing time).  Let’s not forget that although the Tigers were indeed 13-0 in 2004 Tuberville was only able to squeeze 8 wins out of those same great players the year before.
 
During Auburn’s pathetic offensive display on Saturday night we heard how Auburn has more wins over the past three seasons than LSU, Florida, Georgia and Tennessee.  Well la dee freakin da people.  Were you overly impressed with Auburn’s 11-2 record last season?  The Tigers were an opportunistic team that had the ability to beat better teams (LSU, Florida, Nebraska) by capitalizing on mistakes or poor coaching decisions but could also get easily run off the field if an opposing team played well (Georgia, Arkansas).
 
The SEC was a much different place in 2004 than it is today.  (more…)

We’re going to be putting college football in general, and usually the SEC in particular, on notice Colbert-style weekly. or barring that, semi-weekly, throughout the season. Without further ado:

Galoshes McGillicuddy Says…

There’s no doubt in my mind that this fun-loving little dude belongs on a sideline somewhere. Just imagine the fun he (and we) would have. Orson mind-melded with Galoshes to rat out Notre Dame’s starting quarterback, and I’m pretty sure he’s behind this nonsense over at the Ramblin’ Racket:

So, it seems Notre Dame’s starting quarterback is none other than Demetrius Jones. This was posted by Notre Dame blog Robot Charlie, with the text:

One of the best things about being on campus.Yes, that’s guaranteed.

Obviously, this is not from a source which I would call perfect or reliable. When Robot Charlie posted this, they were of course asked “why [they’d] post it if Charlie Weis wanted it kept a secret.” (Apparently for credibility.) He then took down the post in order to maintain secrecy, but didn’t count on RSS readers maintaining the post. Does me posting this break some sort of bloggers’ code of ethics? Haha no such thing; if it means I’m a jerk, so be it.It will most likely mean nothing that I posted this, since blogs indeed DO have no credibility, and this will no doubt not affect GT’s preparation. But all the same, I do hope someone with GT football reads this. I repeat:

Notre Dame’s starting quarterback September 1st against Georgia Tech will be Demetrius Jones.

Notre Dame’s starting QB will be Demetrius Jones.

Demetrius Jones will start for Notre Dame on September 1st.

Then, just for fun, he adds:

Notre Dame is the most overrated team in college football, and if it weren’t for Ralph Friedgen and Mark Mangino, Charlie Weis would also be the fattest coach in the NCAA. Go Jackets! Kick some Irish ass!

I’m down with that, but I’m picking Notre Dame to win. Since they invariably let me down last year whenever I picked them, I expect them to do the same again in ‘07.

I also invoked the spirit of Galoshes when I asked (rhetorically) at FanHouse:

But riddle me this, Galoshes McGillicuddy, how is it that the #2 team in the country only manages 17 first half points on an MSU offense which went 3-and-out (punt), 3 plays for 3 yards (INT), 9 plays for a turnover on downs, 4 plays and punt, 2 plays and INT, 4 plays for 16 yards (INT), and 1 play and INT? You read that correctly. The Dogs punted twice and turned the ball over 5 times in the first half for 60 total yards of offense. The Tigers had seven possessions with which to work, most of them starting with excellent field position, and it still took a 4th and 1 effort at the goal line with 4 seconds remaining to make it 17-0 going into halftime.

And that leads us right into…
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We all saw the troubles Chris Leak had with Urban Meyer’s offense last year. In fact, last year in the bye week leading up to the Georgia game, the Gators coaching staff worked extensively on modifying the offense so that they could make use of Leak’s strengths. With the changes made, the Gators were back on track and had a chance to make some noise in the conference — if not for an awful showing in Columbia. Did Chris Leak have breakout performances after the offense was fine tuned for a drop-back passer?

After the 2006 signing class was gift wrapped and delivered to Gator Nation, I wondered “Not if but When” Tebow would take over. However, after listening to Meyer at SEC Media Days, something came over me. I started to believe the press clippings that said Leak was coming out of his shell, and becoming a leader. The word was that Tebow’s vibrant personality was starting to have a positive influence on Leak. Tebow would be shown the ropes from Leak, we heard.
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In reviewing the second half of the Auburn game I noticed a few factors I didn’t notice the first time around. UF ran 22 offensive plays before the game was essentially over (Leak’s interception) so these are the only plays I will examine. In the second half UF came out with the clear intention of running the ball down the gut of the Auburn defense. 7 of the first 13 plays run were inside runs (6 by Wynn and one off tackle run by Tebow). This makes sense since Auburn has been gashed all season by power running. They have a quick but small defense. UF had a great deal of success on the outside which you would expect to soften the interior of Auburns defense up. Unfortunately this wasn’t the case. Instead the plays that attacked the perimeter were still far more effective than those in the middle of the field. In three plays to Caldwell (a quick screen after faking a screen to Tebow, an option play and a reverse) two of them gained 9 yards and the other 20+ yards. Wynn was not effective running inside as our offensive line was not able to push the smaller but quicker Tigers off the line of scrimmage. Plus their linebackers filled nicely.

Leak was sacked twice in the second half on only 11 attempts. This does not include the fumble or interception where he was also under duress. On both sacks the line play was atrocious. Auburn rant some stunts and the UF linemen protected about as well as a stick of warm butter defending against a knife. Leak did not have 3 seconds on either play. In two seconds he was forced to evade. On both occasions Tiger players were running virtually unblocked toward the UF quarterback. Following this Mullen elected to use more play-action and rollouts to buy Chris more time. I was very dissapointed in the pass blocking in this game. On the fumble the two outside rushers on the right side beat their blockers easily. Unfortunately where Leak wanted to throw the defender was in the way, Leak hesitated and when trying to tuck the ball he fumbled.

On the pass interception Leak actually had about 3 and a half seconds to throw the ball. However he held onto the ball a half second two long and tried to go for the big play rather than the intermediate receiver. Now granted, BOTH players were open but in waiting for the deeper route the defender got too close to Leak up the middle and he threw off his back foot without enough strength and it was an easy interception. Bad play and one a senior can’t make in that instance. Leak has made poor decisions before in games but not in this crucial a spot. Chris has a history of getting rattled if you can pressure him and hit him early. I think the two early sacks in the second half did just that. Then later in the game he lost his patience and tried to make big plays and ended costing us the game.

I was surprised that Auburn did not seem able to stop UF from gaining good yardage on the perimeter with such a fast defense. Harvin did lose yardage on a sweep he reversed fields on (a spectacular play in itself) but you could see the entire Auburn defense keying on that. Just as Tebow was a terrific decoy on the Caldwell pass . . . couldn’t Harvin have been used as a decoy more also? We also saw how much more effective the option was when run to Caldwell than Wynn. Wynn is a powerful runner but doesn’t have the speed or elusiveness that Caldwell or Harvin can bring to that play (or perhaps even Brandon James). This will become a staple play for the Gators but not until next year with Tebow running it.

What confounded me as much as our inept pass blocking in the second half was Auburn’s ability to provide solid protection for Cox against our vaunted defensive line. On most of his passes the line formed a perfect wall around their gimpy leader and only once did he even have to slide out of the pocket before throwing a big completion (which was an excellent throw to a receiver UF had good coverage on). Still the defense made enough plays and got the offense the ball enough for us to win. However on 5 possessions, 4 of them ended with Gator mistakes. Two on sacks and two on turnovers and that isn’t going to get it done. And these were not coverage sacks by any stretch. They were breakdowns in the protection scheme . . . aka mental blunders. But to Dan Mullen’s credit, he adjusted well and Leak was not sacked after the 2nd possession. On the fumble I believe Leak drifted too far back and if he had stepped up he could have found an open throwing lane or at least thrown the ball away. Unfortunately he didn’t and now the game is ancient history. On to Georgia and two weeks of practice to correct these mistakes.