May 16th, 2008 FLORIDA FOOTBALL: FOOD FOR A MAN'S SOUL SEND US AN EMAIL

Strange Bedfellows

Caldwell Gator chompFrom SI.com:

Florida’s Caldwell scored on a 2-yard end around off a handoff from Tennessee’s Erik Ainge on the final play of the Senior Bowl to cap a 14-play, 86-yard final drive and lift the South to a 17-16 win over the North on Saturday.

Caldwell plunged into the end zone, getting hit by Terrence Wheatley at the goal line, and promptly celebrated the fourth-down score with a Gator chomp. Georgia’s Brandon Coutu then made the extra point.

Gator chomp shown at right. Good luck, Bubba. And we’ll miss you.

Thank You, LSU

Fine job, men. Fine job indeed.

Wish you hadn’t allowed that garbage TD to make it a semi-respectable score there at the end, but thank you for defending SEC pride.

SEC bowl record: 7-2. (Can’t believe Florida made up 50% of the ‘2′. Horrifying. But at least the crystal football came back to the right conference.)

I do take some small measure of satisfaction in the fact that Ohio State is now 0-9 against SEC teams in bowl games. Ouch!

Capitol One Punishment

UMUF.jpgThis year’s Capitol One game in Orlando, Florida showed the country one thing.  Despite the overall difference between the Big 10 and SEC conferences, Michigan and Florida are two teams with comparable talent.  I can understand why Wolverine fans were so outraged by the way their season began.  Their belief that Michigan should have been one of the leading candidates for the BCS game was not unfounded.  This game was not as much about planning and execution as it was emotion and will.  Michigan played with a high level of emotion and displayed the kind of intensity they lacked against both Wisconsin and Ohio State (not to mention early losses to Appalachian State and Oregon).  Buoyed by a healthy Henne and Hart, Michigan showed why preseason expectations had been set so high.
 
While the score depicts a close, high scoring game that most fans enjoy, this was by no means a well played game.  There are three phases to every game - Offense, Defense and Special Teams.  Florida won exactly NONE of these phases.  Florida entered the game with the Heisman Trophy quarterback and as the nationally recognized offensive “juggernaut“.  This was the one clear advantage the Gators seemed to have.  Yet on offense Michigan scored 7 times to Florida’s 5.  The Wolverines gained 524 yards (373 passing, 151 rushing) to Florida’s gained 399 (230 rushing, 169 passing).  Had it not been for their 4 turnovers (2 interceptions, 2 fumbles), two of which were inside the 5 yard line, Michigan might have scored 62 points on Tuesday.  The Florida defense had NO answer for the Wolverines.
 
Despite Urban Meyer’s focus on special teams the Gators made too many mistakes in this aspect of the game.  After a mistake by Brandon Minor who stepped out of bounds on the Michigan seven yard line on the opening kickoff (Michigan would go on to drive 93 yards and score regardless), Michigan’s kickoff return squad started their team on the 38, the 44, the 33, the 30 and the 33 yard line.  Not once did the Wolverines begin a possession inside their 30 from a kickoff return and outside the opening drive were never inside their 20.  In addition Florida failed to gather possession of a pooch kick to begin the second half which allowed Michigan possession at the Florida 38 (resulting in a TD).  In addition Florida missed one field goal and had another blocked later in the first half. (more…)

The Unthinkable Happens… Again

OMG!

Losing to Georgia was bad. Losing to Michigan… far worse.

This is the team that lost to Appalachian State. The team I’ve picked on mercilessly. Karma’s a bitch.

Florida just embarrassed the SEC, and the ‘mo’ for the Big 10 vs. Southeastern Conference wars has swung decidedly back to the north.

Hell, Tennessee was able to beat Wisconsin, for crying out loud.

I’m having a hard time understanding how we lost this game. How our offensive line was manhandled. How we lost despite being +4 in turnover margin. How our players looked unprepared. How Michigan seemed to want it more.

How we went 4-and-out two consecutive freaking times to end the game.

One can always play the youth card, but jeez, we played horribly on both sides of the ball. I guess the Heisman Curse lives on.

Michigan commenters, and I’m sure we’ll see plenty of you guys, enjoy. Your team deserved to win and Coach Carr was able to go out in style. No excuses, Michigan is the superior team. (I just vomited in my mouth when I wrote that.) Commenting has been opened up so you can wag it in our faces all you like. We deserve it, I s’pose.

I’m probably going to take a break from blogging for awhile. Dive back into work. Spend more time with the family. I can’t really think about what just occurred because my frame of mind is… dangerous. Unstable.

I want to blame the coaches. I want to say Florida and the SEC is way overrated. I want to say that our defense is the worst I can remember seeing, and they were playing against a team that could only score a field goal against Ohio State. I’m wondering if LSU can restore some vestige of SEC pride in the championship game, or if Ohio State is licking their chops in wait for them there, too.

All that was assured is now suspect. Where once we stood on steady ground, we now find an undulating sea of uncertainty beneath us. Ugly speculation. Painful introspection.

And we get to do this for anther 9 months? Oh, joy.

It’s Beat Michigan Time - Open Thread

M logoWon’t be liveblogging today due to other obligations, but feel free to use this space for the gameday open thread.

If you didn’t already know, Michigan linebacker Shawn Crable has provided the Gators with a little bit of bulletin board material for this game. Thanks, Shawn.

Score prediction: Florida 42, Michigan 20.

Go Gators!

Fulmer’s Folly

Fulmer2.jpg
Cheer up, Phil… it’ll only get worse

While many seem to be looking at this year’s Outback Bowl as another showcase for the SEC versus the Big 10, I wholeheartedly disagree. Vegas might have the Volunteers as more than a field goal favorite, but I’d be surprised if Tennessee was within seven points of the Badgers by the time all is said and done. Don’t get me wrong, I root for SEC teams in all the bowls but if Tennessee wins, I’d be more than pleasantly surprised; I’d be shocked.

Let’s look at this scenario. On one hand we have a young, mistake prone and distracted team in Knoxville facing a slightly more mature, disciplined and focused Badger team. Tennessee is one of the softest teams in the SEC with a porous defense that managed to push the old “bend but don’t break” cliché to the very limit. The Vols’ success this season rested entirely on the production and leadership of senior quarterback Erik Ainge and the offensive mind of David Cutcliffe. Ainge will enter a game a seasoned veteran but will also be thinking about his NFL future while Cutcliffe is coaching his last game with the Vols before taking over the head coaching position at Duke.

Fulmer found himself under the gun all season by those who dearly wanted this to be his swan song. Several other coaches could end up leaving for new opportunities after this bowl game much like rats jumping from a sinking ship as the closure of the Fulmer era seems to be more a matter of “when” than “if“. Given all this staff turmoil Tennessee has also seen two starters from its much maligned and suspect defense suspended with four other players also deemed academically ineligible. On the flip side, rumors from Madison are that PJ Hill, one of the nation’s top and most physical running backs, will be able to play in the game. (more…)

Tebow Wins AP Player of the Year

3 Gators and the Heisman

Tebow wins yet another honor: the AP Player of the Year Award.

Now that Tim has won the Davy O’Brien and Maxwell Awards, has been named to various All-SEC and and All-American teams, and of course brought the Heisman Trophy back to Gainesville, how does it feel to win this latest honor?

“That’s cool,'’ Tebow said.

Aha!  So it is possible to get a little bit jaded winning every award in existence and the entire world bowing at your feet, telling you how great you are.

No doubt Tebow’s in full practice mode for the upcoming battle with the Wolverines, and doesn’t really want to think or talk about laudations anymore.  As most coaches will tell you, buying into praise and compliments will result in a fat, happy, and complacent player.  I’m sure Michigan would take it if they could get it.

MeatChicken Musings

michigan-chumps.jpg
Long: good OL. Henne: suspect QB. Hart: mouthy RB.

We’re a good two-and-a-half weeks away from our meeting with the Michigan Wolverines. Perhaps it’s too early to discuss anything. Then again, what do we have to discuss? What can we expect?

For one, I have to admit I’m disappointed we didn’t draw a better team, despite my initial “Oh, Hell Yes” reaction. Michigan didn’t even finish the year inside the Top 25, yet here the 9th-ranked (AP) Florida Gators have drawn them for the Capital One bowl.

I was having a conversation regarding the Michigan fanbase’s dark mood about this matchup with a fellow FanHouse blogger who has ties to the Big 10 conference. He wrote in email:

Michigan fans are worried that they’re losing their place among the elite nationally AND within the conference. Wisconsin has been almost as successful as Michigan over the past few years, and with the way Zook is recruiting, Illinois may be able to keep the ball rolling. Bielema and Alvarez very wisely accepted the Outback bid early to keep from having to face Florida in the Cap One. Penn State did the same thing with the Alamo Bowl. They pretty much forced the Cap One to take Michigan, proving that Michigan’s AD is as behind the times as the Wolverine fan base thinks he is.

That certainly sheds some light on how we drew the Maize and Blue.

And can you really blame Wisky and Penn State? Florida’s a bad matchup for them as well. The Gators are receiving tons of respect for their potent offense; they’re the highest ranked 3-loss team in both the BCS and AP standings; even above two-loss teams like West Virginia and Arizona State. No one wants to play them.

I’m not privy to the inside dealings that go into bowl selections, but this story has a legit feel to it.

Anyway, as for the Wolvies, I just can’t see how we lose. I usually dread that fat and happy, complacent, overconfident feeling and it isn’t a welcome one right now; but even if the Gators have a terrible, turnover-prone, mistake-ridden game, I just don’t see a loss in the cards.

Michigan’s not very inventive on offense. I’m sure Mattison, Strong, Heater, et. al. have been carefully preparing based on many years of tape, which shows a rigid, unimaginative offense which rarely presents any wrinkles. Any number of SEC teams would have presented a far greater challenge to our youthful line and secondary, so it seems hard to believe we can’t contain this attack.

On the offensive side of the ball: will the Gators punt? Michigan’s defense doesn’t like to fight by their opponent’s rules, and Florida’s offense above all others in the nation dictates their own terms. Tebow’s one-man play-action attack will fluster and confuse Michigan’s defense, who were so inept at stopping Oregon and Dennis Dixon that the Ducks began to toy with their opponent, running Statue of Liberty fakes and gadget plays seemingly for the hell of it. Florida’s offense is at least as powerful as the Ducks with a healthy Dixon at QB.

We’ll start breaking down actual numbers and stats in the coming days, but from a high-level perspective, we don’t need to drill down too deeply to arrive at the same conclusion the rest of the college football world has found: it should be Florida in a rout over Michigan.

Oh, Hell Yes: Gators Draw Michigan in Capital One Bowl

Defeat is spelled M-I-C-H-I-G-A-N
Michigan.

I admit it, I hate this team. Despise them, even.

You want to talk about entitlement culture? It’s alive and well in Ann Arbor.

Michigan, much like Ohio State, has skated by in the Big 10 conference for years. Consistently, they’ve garnered undeserved pre-season accolades. Since 2004, they’ve finished their season with two straight losses, but like a bad apple bobbing to the top, find themselves ranked in the Top 25 — sometimes in the Top 5! — each and every year thereafter.

If there’s one thing I absolutely can’t stand about college football, it’s top rankings for weak legacy teams who also play weak schedules. Getting blown out of their 2006 Rose Bowl appearance by USC should have been evidence enough for voters that Michigan can’t hang, will not hang, and hasn’t hung with top-flight competition for years. Despite that, they were still a pre-season Top 5 team in ‘07. Their defensive unit was even lauded as a strength; there were positive murmurs about the large number of returning starters, never mind that none of them were any good.

It was a year ago that Michigan fans made the same argument which Georgia fans and their head coach, Mark Richt, used unsuccessfully tonight in a bid to make it to the BCS title game; that despite failing to win a conference title, they deserved a chance to knock off #1 Ohio State for all the marbles.

Michigan fans ranted and raved that their 1-loss team was better than ours. Florida? Our Gators were written off as a weak, undeserving team despite winning the SEC and possessing a better winning percentage. I’m sure we all remember Ohio State fans trash-talking the Gators after the BCS Selection Committee went with Florida, but don’t forget that shorter period in which Michigan fans were doing the same thing. They were convinced that their team was the only one in the country capable of beating the Bucks… despite the fact they had just lost to them one game prior! The nerve!

Fortunately, voters didn’t buy it then and they didn’t buy the southern flavor in 2007, either. LSU will play Ohio State, and may God have mercy on the Buckeyes in that game. Georgia draws the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors in the Sugar Bowl.

And now, we get Michigan.

I consider it a fine opportunity for some payback.

It’s the second meeting ever for the two programs. The last didn’t go so well for our Zookian Gators; it ended up being a 38-30 loss to Michigan in 2002. Incidentally, that’s the last year that Michigan finished their season with a win, and the last bowl victory as well.

I don’t miss Zook. I think it’s great for him and the Illini that they get a chance to play in the Rose Bowl. I like the coaching staff we’ve got now. I like ‘em a lot better.

This sets up very well for the Gators; it’s a mismatch in every category I can think of. Tim Tebow, ideally coming into the game as college football’s only active player to win the Heisman Trophy, should be able to easily carve up Michigan’s porous secondary for gobs of passing yards. Similarly, Florida should be able to run the ball on the Wolvies all day long, whether it’s the Baby Rhino attack or relentless Percycution.

You know Michigan fans have to be dreading this. Remember what Oregon did to them when they ran the spread? What Appalachian State did?

This is their worst nightmare. An acid-trip, purple-drank cocktail hallucination. A football portrait painted by Salvador Dali.

This could be a game in which the Gators don’t punt.

And we get ‘em in Orlando.

Obviously, despite all the things going for Florida, the game carries with it the potentially devastating penalty of endless humiliation should the Good Guys lose. Yeah, it’d be embarassing to drop our pants to these guys in our home state. Luckily, Urban Meyer is not one to let his squad walk in with inflated heads; they’ll be ready to play, hungry, aggressive, and they’ll give Michigan far more respect than I am right now.

We will not lose.

I think of this game and I literally salivate.

We’ll have lots of opportunities to break this game down over the next 30 days and change; but my knee-jerk, way-too-early score prediction?

Florida 49, Michigan 23

And the Best Conference is . . . .

THE BIG EAST!!!

Based on a Bowl Challenge developed at Saurian Saugacity and also referenced on ScalpEm we have finished the bowl season with the following ratings. The system devised by Mergz of SS awards points based on matchups rather than just a straight win or loss. You can look at the exact rules here but the gist of it is that conferences are broken up into tiers. Equal teams get 3 points for a win. Beating a lower tier team awards less points (depending on the tier of the team you face) while beating a HIGHER tier team awards more points. When you play a non-BCS team you can only win 2 points with a win and you are penalized 1 point with a loss.

Both of those sites use the raw totals which I find to be somewhat misleading and more representative of a conference’s size than its strength. In the basic format the team with the most bowl teams has an unfair advantage to win the tournament. Here at OrangeandBlueHue we have taken the total conference points and divided by the number of opportunities (bowls) each conference was able to play in. This way we calculate the RELATIVE strength of the conference. Common sense can tell us that a 12 team conference will probably have a greater number of good teams than an 8 team conference. By taking the relative strength we remove the statistical bias of having conferences of different sizes and some conferences being more attractive in bowls than other conferences.

The final point totals are: (more…)

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