There has been much ado (at least by me) regarding the ratings drop for the NCAA Tournament this year. My curiosity on the subject caused me to dig a little deeper into the issue. There were initial attempts by some to declare the first week’s rating decline as simply a function of Easter Weekend (because of all the avid catholic roundball fans I guess). However when the trend continued into week two that seemed a bit of a stretch (a weeklong Easter Hangover?). But then in the face of those lukewarm first two weekends the 2008 NCAA Tournament revealed to us a dream Final Four . . . a compilation where all four number one seeds had reached the final weekend. But that was not all as it also included three of the most storied college basketball programs in UCLA, North Carolina and Kansas. I mean what could be better than that, right?

Well, I’ll tell you something that could have been better – CLOSE, WATCHABLE games. It’s true, I fell into the trap thinking that this compelling matchup of titans (which also included recent power Memphis who had held the #1 spot in the polls for most of the season) would make for some exciting and dynamic games. Unfortunately nothing could have been further from the truth. The results of last weekends contests between UCLA and Memphis and North Carolina and Kansas were two truly ANTI-CLIMATIC blowouts of 15 and 18 points respectively. Oooooh, what gripping television . . . is that going to boost ratings?

According to the overnight ratings - apparently not. Last weekend’s overnight showed that while the marquee evening matchup of Kansas and North Carolina approximated last years UCLA vs Florida late semifinal game (at least it probably will after the ratings are expanded in the next few days), the preceding game (UCLA vs Memphis) was down almost 14% from last years matchup of Ohio State and Georgetown. Okay so what gives? Why is it that this tournament could end up becoming the second lowest rated Tournament in the past 3 decades? Only the 2003 Tournament will have lower ratings than 2008 and that tournament has the excuse of being played at the beginning of the Iraqi War. (more…)

Because 10 is the number of a perfect score, the Biblical commandments, the base of our number system, and the fingers on our hands, here are ten tips that will help the Gators reach the NIT finals for the first time in program history:

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Let’s look at the various UF-UMass matchups:

Backcourt: I’ll be honest, we’re pretty much screwed here. UMass is led by point guard Chris Lowe (11.8 PPG, 6.2 APG), shooting guard Ricky Harris (18.0 PPG), and worst of all, swingman Gary Forbes (19.5 PPG, 7.7 RPG). On the whole, Florida does match up well with Lowe and Harris. However, the Gators’ guards are going to be on their feet all night long. In order to have a chance in this department, we’re going to have to fight back offensively.

Forbes in particular represents the biggest problem. He’s too big (6-7, 220 lbs.) for Nick Calathes (6-6, 185), but too fast for Dan Werner (6-7, 235). For Donovan’s purposes, they probably won’t stop Forbes from having a big night.

However, if they can effectively shut down Lowe and Harris, they may be able to forces Forbes and Etienne Brower into some difficult situations. Maybe.

Edge: Massachusetts

Frontcourt: The big guys are our best friends here. The one guy who can match up with Mo Speights sizewise, 7-1 Luke Bonner, isn’t much of a threat (3.7 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 11.1 MPG) However, Forbes and Brower (6-8, 215) will pose some problems at the 4-spot. Expect Donovan to bring in Adam Allen (6-8, 225) and Alex Tyus (6-8, 217) for a lot of minutes at the corresponding positions.

Edge: Even

Bench: This game features a conflict of bench styles. The Minutemen have lot of, well, sixth men; however, they don’t log a lot of minutes or do much stats-wise. The Gators have a thin bench, but everybody contributes more. If Donovan plays his usual fast-paced offensive game, his higher-quality reserves could prove decisive.

Personally, I’d take the Gator bench if I was a basketball coach.

Edge: Florida

Coaching: Donovan has the Gators believing in themselves for the first time all season. They’ve developed chemistry as a result of all of the turmoil. They’ve temporarily given up a film room, a massage parlor, a tape room, and all of the other stuff associated with that multimillion-dollar practice facility. But they’ve gained mental attributes that those things could never provide.

However, former UK Wildcats Travis Ford and Rodrick Rhodes are on the UMass coaching staff. Waaaait a minute, that in and of itself is not an advantage.

Edge: Florida

Intangibles: For all practical purposes, it’s another away game for the Gators, as UMass fans can easily travel a few hours by car or bus to New York City. Florida dug deep within themselves in the ASU win, UMass came off of an emotional comeback against Syracuse. UMass has some seniors looking to end their career on a high note.

Useless factoid: Donovan played at MSG when he spent a season with the New York Knicks under Pitino.

Edge: Massachusetts

Prediction: Minutemen will pull away in the last 5 minutes against Florida (Reverse psychology in effect.)

Don’t expect me to have a career as a bracketologist…

Even Corey Brewer has experienced his share of losing.

He was a McDonald’s High School All-American, but chose Florida when he was shunned by at least one other program. After being drafted by the Minnesota Timberwolves, his childhood idol, Kevin Garnett, was traded to the Boston Celtics in the biggest superstar deal in NBA history. With his team standing at 12-48, only the Miami Heat can claim a worse NBA record. The worst part: nobody cares about his two national championships anymore.

So the Gators, who appear to be unfortunate souls after their heartbreaking loss to Tennessee, have actually had it better than at least one of their predecessors. All of which raises important questions.

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2007 FINAL FOUR
Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Ga
Saturday, April 31, 2007
 
Georgetown versus Ohio State
6:07pm CBS
 
In what is being billed as the biggest matchup of big men since Patrick Ewing played Hakeem Olajuwon, Georgetown’s 7′2″ Roy Hibbert and Ohio State’s 7′0″ Greg Oden are set to battle in Saturday’s first game.  In just a few years the tournament has transformed from a guard dominated event to one in which frontcourt players have stolen the spotlight.  Both of these players have the ability to change the game offensively and defensively.  Oden will be the dominant shot blocker in the game but Georgetown has several other quality big men on the floor while Oden is the lone frontcourt force for the Bucks.
 
Both of these teams have endured a similar road to the Final Four.  Ohio State needed a last second shot to beat Tennessee while Georgetown needed the same against Vanderbilt.  Ohio State came back on Xavier on a late three pointer to force an overtime period they dominated while Georgetown did the same against North Carolina to reach an overtime period they also dominated.  Both schools got the benefit of possible calls that would have ended their season (Ohio State when Oden wasn’t given a flagrant foul at the end of the Xavier game and Georgetown when Jeff Green game winning shot against Vanderbilt involved a traveling violation that wasn’t called).  If people tried to apply the “team of destiny” marker to this game it seems as if both clubs are “equally” blessed.
 
The Hoyas have been a popular pick since the beginning of this tournament due to their unique offense system, balanced scoring, height, defense and their dominance of the Big East.  Originally I also had Georgetown making it to the final game and as good as Georgetown has looked so far that seemed a good choice.  However, I believe that Ohio State will win this matchup.  I don’t deny that while Ohio State has the best post player that Georgetown has TWO NBA caliber big men in Hibbert and Green with power forward DeJuan Summers also being a tremendous frontcourt player.  This same Georgetown frontcourt was able to dominate the North Carolina frontcourt late in their elite eight matchup despite having foul trouble.  So why do I think Ohio State will win?
 
Ohio State was exposed against Xavier and Tennessee.  Both of those teams attacked Oden by wearing him down with motion and pulling him out of the paint with their bigs.  Hibbert has the same kinds of skills and athleticism to do the same thing and is a much better ball handler for a big man than people realize.  So expect Thad Matta to approach this game much like he adjusted to Memphis and play zone.  Ohio State was a predominant man-to-man defense all year long except against Wisconsin.  Wisconsin runs a sophisticated Flex offense involving a lot of backdoor cuts, screens and guard post ups.  With such a young team Matta adjusted defensively by going zone against the Badgers which resulted in two wins and a Big 10 regular season and tournament Championship.
 
This means that Ohio State’s best defensive weapon will be in the middle where he can be effective.  Georgetown is an efficient offensive team but not a great three point shooting squad.  Against North Carolina Georgetown played mostly man-to-man in the first half and then switched to zone later in the game because of foul trouble.  However this zone helped negate the North Carolina big men who struggled scoring against the zone.  Not accustomed to the types of reversals and cuts needed to best attack the Hoya zone, the Tar Heel perimeter players settled for outside shots.  A zone defense would also neutralize Oden on the offensive end and should Hibbert get into foul trouble John Thompson III might be forced to employ it to keep his center in the game.  Neither Green nor Summers can realistically match up against Oden one on one.
 
I like Ohio State in this game because I think the zone will mitigate some of the benefits of the Princeton offense reducing Georgetown’s offensive efficiency and help keep Oden out of foul trouble.  On the other end Ohio State is a better perimeter team than North Carolina who was a single bucket away on a horrid shooting night from replacing Georgetown in this game.  The Buckeyes have more players who can make big shots from the perimeter and a guard in Conley who is as quick as anyone when penetrating into the lane.  This game will be close because Georgetown will dominate the boards however I think the defensive effect of Oden will be greater than Hibbert because Ohio State is comfortable scoring a majority of its points on the perimeter.

Winner = Ohio State

Florida versus UCLA
8:47pm CBS
 
I must be trapped in a time warp, didn’t we just see this game?  Yes, I know it’s a new season and this game is for the chance to play in the title game rather than the title game itself.  Still, isn’t this the same game we saw last year?  While a few of the names have changed for UCLA the style and key matchups have not.  UCLA plays ugly, grinding defense and even uglier, boring offense.  Last year UCLA decided to have Jordan Farmar (currently in the NBA) pressure Taurean Green and disrupt the Florida offense.  What resulted was a game of more dunks and layups than I have seen outside of a pregame warm-up.  How did the UCLA defense crumble like the walls of Jericho?  The Gators proved that they could start their offense with anyone, often it was Noah at the top who began the offense with Green coming off of screens and then cutting inside of UCLA’s hedges.  Once inside the defense, Green waited for the defense to rotate and collapse and constantly dished to the now open Florida big men who dunked with ease.
 
UCLA fans will point out that this years frontcourt is more athletic and experienced than last year’s team.  It’s true but they are also shorter and less of an offensive threat.  Florida dominated UCLA beginning to end because they only had to shut down several key players on the Bruins - Farmar and Aflalo.  Ryan Hollins could score in double digits but he relied on dishes from the point guard who drew away his defender.  Mata and Moute are good rebounding and defensive players but neither has the kind of post moves to make them any type of legitimate offensive threat (less so than Hollins).  They score on layups or put backs and not much else.  Florida’s third big man, Chris Richard would not only start for the Bruins but likely be their leading frontcourt scorer.
 
Howland will have to decide where to focus his team and where to take risks.  UCLA defenses are predicated on the quick double team creating strips and anticipating passes from the doubled big man for steals.  Last year Florida not only dissected this scheme with precise passes to the open player but by not turning the ball over it negated a large portion of UCLA’s ability to score points on runouts after turnovers.  Very early in the game UCLA realized they couldn’t stop Florida from scoring and therefore couldn’t score enough themselves to keep the game close.  UCLA depends on scoring from specific players, namely Arron Aflalo.  Aflalo found himself matched up against Corey Brewer who was not only 4 inches taller (with a wingspan that even exceeded that) but quicker than he was.  While Arron is a stronger player he was reluctant to drive the ball inside (perhaps intimidated by Noah’s NCAA record 6 blocked shots) thus settling for contested outside jumpers.
 
Jordan Farmar, UCLA’s leading scorer in last year’s game, has been replaced by Darren Collison who was a non-factor as a substitute in the title game.  Collison has excellent quickness and is a very good distributor who can score if needed.  He will most likely be matched up against Taurean Green.  Unless Green gets into foul trouble or injured this position could be a push.  I don’t expect Green to have the incredible 8 to 1 assist to turnover ratio he had last year but neither do I expect him to go 0 for 7 from three point land as he did last year.   Even if Collison has success scoring he’ll only be repeating the feat of Farmar which had no affect on that game’s outcome.  Josh Shipp, who replaces Cedrick Bozeman, gives the Bruins an additional outside shooter which should make this game closer than last year’s matchup.  With UCLA’s weapons being all in the backcourt and mostly perimeter I expect Florida to utilize a lot of switching on shooters similar to the way they defended Butler taking their chances with UCLA’s bigs making shots one on one.
 
Much has been made of UCLA’s win against Kansas.  Phooey!!!  Kansas versus UCLA was the battle of the bigless.  Neither team had any significant interior presence.  Even had Kansas won the game the would be the lone Final Four team without a premier big man.  Sure, Julian Wright has a ton of talent but he also has the propensity to disappear in big games.  Wright is also a perimeter player force to play power forward due to the lack of ball handling and dearth of quality bigs in Lawrence.  I firmly believe that if Wright makes it at the next level he will have to improve his perimeter skills and play small forward.  Julian also gets most of his points in transition rather than being able to create for himself in the half court.
 
So there you have two teams in Kansas and UCLA who BOTH play tremendous defense, are very athletic and have no inside game to speak of.  For all the steals that UCLA came up with it seems to be forgotten that UCLA had 26 turnovers compared to the Jayhawk’s 21.  Much of it caused by an inept offense matched up by a great defense.  Luckily the Bruins were able to turn some of those turnovers into points as well as making a number of critical shots late in the possession.  Many of UCLA’s steals came late in the game (perhaps skewing our perception of UCLA’s dominance) after Bill Self seemed to realize his team couldn’t score in its half court sets.  With no interior presence and UCLA harassing Self’s backcourt relentlessly he decided to have his team attack individually.  This was a sound move since Kansas is loaded with some of the quickest and athletic players in the country and at times it was effective.  HOWEVER, Kansas is still a young team and it showed when they tried to play isolation basketball.  The Jayhawk’s spacing was terrible and often Kansas players would bring their defender to the ball resulting in numerous slap always and steals.  Kansas would try to drive in the lane and spin into a UCLA team with a defensive mentality and quick hands.  From there the Jayhawks proved inferior in mental toughness to the tournament experience laden Bruins.
 
Unfortunately for UCLA, Florida isn’t Kansas.  Florida doesn’t possess the speed and athleticism up and down the roster the way Kansas does but neither does Kansas possess two of the top 10 big men in the country (and a third who was awarded the SEC’s 6th man award).  Kansas (much like North Carolina) is not comfortable going deep into possessions.  They are a team that likes to play up-tempo basketball and UCLA took advantage of this.   Florida can be patient on offense and can play inside-out with a frontcourt that can create their own shot and score with consistency.  Basically, this isn’t a good matchup for UCLA.  Even if they manage to reduce Florida’s offensive production how will they score enough to keep the game close?
 
I think UCLA can win this game only if one or more of the following occur:  1)  Florida turns the ball over twice as much or 10 times more than the Bruins.  2)  The Gators are unable to hit open shots (aka a poor shooting night).  3)  Green gets into foul trouble or is degraded through injury or exhaustion.  4) Mata and Moute play one of their best games and UCLA manages to get Florida’s big men into foul trouble.  5) Either Shipp, Aflalo or Collison have an unbelievable shooting night and can single-handedly manufacture points when needed.
 
If this game goes as expected with each team playing they way they have all year long I see another double digit loss for the Bruins.  But the final score might be deceiving because of late fouls to extend the game.  I believe this game will remain in the 5 to 9 point range for most of the second half and be much closer at halftime than last year.
 
Winner = Florida

What a wild ride 2006 has been this year for Gator Athletics. It’s never been a better time to say It’s Great-to-be-a-Florida-Gator! Just last year everyone was in awe of the Texas Longhorns who won titles in both baseball and football. The Gators are in the midst of doing one better. After capturing the top prize in all of college basketball with the Super Sophomores, we are in a position to surprise everyone and take home the ADT trophy in College Football. Being in the the position of winning a second National Championship all within the same year with the two big money sports of NCAA athletics will put Gator Nation in some exclusive company. With that thought in mind, I bring you the Top 10 Gator Moments of 2006.

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