The latest BCS standings feature three teams ahead of Florida.
1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Oklahoma
4. Florida
Some members of Gator Nation are screaming and running around in terror as though the sky is falling. Fear of Texas?! Relax, fellas… if Florida wins out they will play in the BCS National Championship game for the second time in three years.
Here’s why.
1) Texas has one game remaining, against lowly Texas A&M. Florida has two — both ranked. No. 20 FSU, on the road, and No. 1 Alabama at a neutral site. If Florida wins both, their record will be 12-1, while Texas’ best possible record is 11-1.
2) The BCS computers don’t care which conference or division a team plays in. Texas and Oklahoma will be compared as relative equals. But humans, who have a vote in this just like the machines, do care. We saw this in 2006 when Michigan was denied a rematch with Ohio State and I believe the human voters will make the same choice in 2008.
3) At some point in the near future, Texas will begin to slip and they’ll be powerless to prevent the slide. This will occur because Florida, Alabama and Oklahoma will keep playing, but the Longhorns’ season will have concluded. Their only hope of holding onto a No. 2 BCS ranking is for all three of their immediate competitors to lose.
4) Frankly, it doesn’t really matter whether Texas or Oklahoma win the Big 12. In fact, it doesn’t matter if either of them win — don’t forget about 2-loss Missouri, who would love to win the conference and spin up a massive BCS headache for the rest of the nation. Florida will hold onto its berth and the only question is, who will they play? If Missouri wins the Big 12, Penn State and USC re-enter the conversation, but USC has to hope that Oregon State doesn’t win the Pac-10.
5) Bottom line? All Florida has to do is win their next two games, and the Gators can book their trip to Miami. It’s simple, cut, and dried. It would take some crazy scenarios to keep a one-loss Florida squad out of the title game; those involve the Gators winning, but playing poorly against FSU and Bama. But even that is unlikely to be enough considering that both are quality opponents.