The data I found on last year’s hoops team was fascinating. Chandler Parsons was the most productive player not named Speights or Calathes? Who would have guessed?

Dr. Berri’s methodology opens a whole new insight into statistics and results. So I decided to continue my research into Florida basketball. Feel free to correct me if any figures are inaccurate.

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A few days ago, I found a fascinating basketblog called “The Wages of Wins”* At its core, it discusses how a team’s highest scorer may not help, and in fact may even hurt their teams’ win total. Berri is an economics professor, so he uses formulas to ascertain how many “Wins Produced” or “Wins Produced per 48 minutes” each player has.

Even though these formulas are designed for the NBA, they can be tweaked for the college game. Thus, I wondered what his research would say about last year’s Gator team. And so, at the risk of a collective tongue-lashing in the comments section of this post, I will delve into Florida hoops once more.

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Vernon Macklin, a 6′ 9″, 230 lb. sophomore, sat on the bench behind Roy Hibbert at Georgetown. After a visit to Gainesville and extensive talks with Billy Donovan, now he’s a Gator. From Fox Sports:

“It’s a great decision because it gives Vernon a chance to sit out and work on some things,” said Macklin’s former prep school coach, Kevin Keatts, of Hargrave Military Academy. “He’s learned a lot in the last two years under John (Thompson III), but going to Florida will give him a chance to re-charge his battery a little bit.”

Macklin made the decision during a Friday visit to Gainesville.

Now, is this a big deal? It may very well be. Macklin is a former high school basketball star and earned both Parade and McDonald’s All-American honors. While Florida’s then-unlegendary ’04s were getting settled into their roles in the 2005 team, Vernon Macklin was being gushed over by the various recruiting services, who rated him thus:

Scout.com: #17
Rivals.com: #37
Prepstars.com: #12

And Prepstars had this to say about Macklin in ‘05:
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Eloy Vargas and Kenny Kadji share more in common than they might realize. Both were snubbed for the McDonalds and Jordan All-America games. Both stand a lanky 6-10.

And both have moved down on the recruiting food chain. In the latest Rivals250 rankings, Vargas (American Heritage) slipped from 3rd to 9th in PF rankings. Kadji (Pendleton) went from 3rd to 5th. The worst part: both were demoted from five stars to four. But might this be a blessing in disguise?

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From Madison Square Garden to Beijing? Such may be path for Florida’s leading scorer and assist man.

According to the Independent Florida Alligator, Nick Calathes will try out for the Greek national team over the summer. If he makes the cut, he could potentially help Greece make the 2008 Olympic Games.

Nikos already has dual citizenship and will likely receive his Greek passport shortly. A medal probably isn’t in his future, as he’ll likely have to face Team U.S.A., Mike Krzyzewski, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, and company if the team just happens to make the final rounds. But why not take a crack at it? This kind of thing only happens once every four years.

As one of only two college players who averaged 15 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists throughout the season (Maryland’s Greivis Vasquez being the other), Calathis certainly has a positive reputation.

Good luck, Nick.

(This is the second of a three-part series.)

Florida’s Big Fella faces other problems than mere cash concerns. Even with a seven-figure salary likely in the bag, his problems don’t end there.

With the Gators, Mo plays as a center, plain and simple. At 6-10 and 245 pounds, He’s bigger and thicker than everyone else on the team, and even with Kenny Kadji coming along, Donovan won’t move Speights to power forward and tire both of his bigs too soon.

In the NBA, it gets a little more complicated. On virtually every NBA team, even without a franchise center, there is someone of comparable, if not superior, height and weight to Mo. For example, the Boston Celtics have Kevin Garnett (+ 1 in. , +8 lbs.) and Kendrick Perkins (+35 lbs.), the LA Lakers have Andrew Bynum (+2 in., +30 lbs.) and Pau Gasol (+2 in., +15 lbs.), and the Phoenix Suns boast Amare Stoudemire (comparable height and weight, but more experienced) and Shaquille O’Neal (+3 in., +80 lbs.)

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(This is the first of a three part series.)

For his own good, Mareese Speights needs to stay in school. And we’ll start with the stuff that makes college athletes leave school: money.

www.mynbadraft.com has Mo going 20th overall, so we’ll assume in case A that he darts and goes there.

For case B, pretend that he stays, leaves after one year, and goes up to No.10.

Finally, let’s have him stay for his senior year and go No.5 in C.

Here’s how the pay works after 4,3, and 2 years, respectively, using this year’s pay scales. In A and B, the team uses its option.

A: $1.06m + $1.14m + $1.22m + $1.89m = $5.31m
B: $1.75m + $1.88m + $2.01m = $5.64m
C: $2.64m + $2.83m = $5.47m

So Speights makes the most out of plan B by 2012, even with a one-year headstart in A. And by 2013, the sheer margin of C’s salary will have him positioned excellently should the team spend its option on him. And he’ll have a college degree.

Of course, this assumes that he’ll develop his talents and work on his weaknesses as he stays in school. This also assumes that he won’t get hurt in that timespan, but he hasn’t had anything serious yet at UF.

This is the complete opposite of Joakim Noah’s situation, where he was projected as a top-2 pick in 2006 and ended up sliding all the way down to No.9 a year later. Meanwhile, in between, Mo, let’s consider the real-life story of an anagulous superstar.

Tim Duncan was actually a competitive swimmer until he took up basketball as a high school freshman. When he went to Wake Forest, he made up for lost time, staying for all four years
despite being projected as the top pick at least once before.

Ultimately, he put his pro career on hold and was picked No.1 in 1997 anyway. But more importantly, he was a much more fundamentally sound player than he was in 1995 and 1996.

Two years later, he began building his legend by winning his first NBA ring and Finals MVP. Three more rings, two more Finals MVPs, and two regular-season MVP awards later, he is considered one of the best forward-centers in NBA history.

Amidst talk about Mo Speights leaving, Donovan having to shove someone out the door due to scholarship problems, and chatter on the message boards about the incoming Dynamic Duo at PF and C (Eloy Vargas and Kenny Kadji), let’s look at various situations.

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When you field a “below the rim” team like the 2008 Florida Gators, you live and die by your shot. They didn’t fall for Florida in their NIT semifinal game against the Minutemen. With a pretty good defensive effort and some made free throws, you can make up for that; but the Gators were good for only one of two, holding the Minutemen to 42% field goal shooting, while going a miserable 8-21 from the charity stripe.

Game over. Season over.

It was a roller coaster ride of a season: sometimes exhilarating, occasionally terrifying and often downright frustrating.

The Gators didn’t lose to UMass because of heart or intensity, they lost because they’re simply not a complete basketball team that is capable of shifting gears and winning games with “Plan B.”

This team is a work in progress. The pieces are not fundamentally flawed, but the puzzle hasn’t come together yet, and it might take another season to really get things to gel.

Still, I’ve grown to appreciate this squad again. Not just because they made a deep NIT run, which was nice, but because of the way they banded together and tried to pull out a championship. Maybe it just wasn’t in the cards this year.

Next year, fellas, Gator Nation expects you to be better. Much better. With the talent on this squad, a year of off-season conditioning, and a quick glance around the SEC at what’s returning, I see no reason why you shouldn’t be contending to win the SEC. No reason at all. And without question we should be discussing which seed you’ll earn, rather than which tournament you’ll play in, next February. (more…)

THE ASSOSIATED PRESS -

Ever wish you could relive the glory days of college? Today, one lucky, overpaid man will get the chance to do just that.

In an unprecedented move, the NCAA has granted permission for Denver Nuggets center Marcus Camby to suit up for his alma mater, the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, for the NIT semifinal game against the Florida Gators.

“Billy Donovan needs to learn a lesson about humility.” remarked head coach Travis Ford. “UF is weak around the low post, and bringing Marcus back was a prudent decision.”

“We don’t want to witness the making of another UCLA-type dynasty.”

The move gives UMass a feared inside prescence to counter Florida center Marreese Speights. Camby provides the perfect complement to swingman Gary Forbes, who leads the team with 19.5 points per game. Needless to say, most bookies have UMass winning in a blowout.

Upon further comment, Donovan was so irate that we had to edit out considerable portions of the transcript for vulgarity.

“Travis Ford is a ****ing b******! Everyone ****ing knows you can’t do this **** in college ball! This is ****ing bull****! Who do those guys think they ****ing are?? He’s lost his ****ing eligibility, a******s!”

The NBA’s season leader in shot blocks, Camby was drafted second overall in 1996. He has played for the Toronto Raptors, the New York Knicks (an added bonus), and the Denver Nuggets in 12 seasons in the NBA.

But Billy is not going down without a fight. The latest rumors have former Gator and current Knick David Lee spotted at Donovan’s most recent practice. Caught in its own web of hypocrisy, the NCAA will likely vote to include Lee in the Gator lineup for the sake of PR.

Either way, college sports may never be the same.

Vincent Gagliano contributed to this report