So the Gators were clearly favored to claim their second straight national title after every starter returned. Come April 2007, that happened as expected.

But how did the team change from the last year to this one?

A. Horford (PF/C) = 9.4 WP, .427 WP48 [+2.4, +.096]
J. Noah (PF/C) = 8.5 WP, .392 WP48 [-0.6, .-057]
C. Brewer (SF) = 4.8 WP, .219 WP48 [+0.6, +.036]
T. Green (PG) = 2.9 WP, .106 WP48 [+0.1, +.001]
M. Speights (PF/C) = 2.4 WP, .609 WP48
L. Humphrey (SG) = 1.6 WP, .062 WP48 [-1.9, -.078]
C. Richard (PF/C) = 1.1 WP, .069 WP48 [-0.9, -.074]
W. Hodge (SG) = 0.9 WP, .060 WP48 [+1.7, +.108]
J. Mitchell (SF) = 0.7 WP, .171 WP48
D. Werner (SF/PF) = -0.9 WP, -.125 WP48
Nonconference bonus = 4.0 WP

Summation of Wins Produced = 35.9 Actual wins = 35

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HOUSE OF CARDS

Well the second biggest upset of the year occurred Saturday when a preseason top 10 team in Louisville fell at home and gave up 38 points to arguably the worst offensive team in the country, save Notre Dame. A team in Syracuse that had lost it’s three previous games by at least 30 points. It takes a little luster off the Wildcats win of a week before. Perhaps the Cardinals were so crushed in the loss to their in-state rivals that they never came to play but still . . . talk about overranked. Between Louisville and Michigan the anti-preseason poll folks have garnered considerable momentum in their cause. Memo to Kragthorpe: Sometimes a little defense can go a long way.

I’d say either the heat on Steve Kragthorpe is approaching that required to split atoms or Bobby Petrino took all the fans mojo with him when he left the program. Given the loud chorus of boos that were heard Saturday coming from Papa Johns stadium I believe it’s the former. Luckily UK didn’t get so wrapped up in their last second win to lose focus the way the Cards did. Kentucky continues to play well beating Arkansas on the road. Could it be any worse to be a Cardinal right now? The Wildcats punched you in the stomach so hard you lost TWO games. Last week there was some discussion questioning how Louisville could be ranked ahead of Kentucky. That injustice has now been rectified.

THAT’S A BUNCH OF BULL

Moving up on the old impressameter is the South Florida Bulls. As I speculated two weeks ago, South Florida now meets with West Virginia in a nationally televised Friday night game of two ranked and undefeated teams. USF manhandled ACC also ran North Carolina in Chapel Hill and now has a chance to jump another 4 or 5 spots in the polls with a win. Could South Florida be on the way to its first ever top 10 ranking? This would be the first step. How impressive is what Jim Leavitt has done in Tampa with this program? Should the Bulls keep winning will he be long for the school? I realize he has been approached for jobs previously but now he will be targeted by big name programs rather than for mid-level positions.

BEWARE OF DAWG
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BCS Malaise

The current uproar over the BCS standings is fairly laughable when you consider most of the fans complaining now will be arguing for a team that is likely to lose before all is said and done. Here is my take about the teams still in the running for a national title game in order of their likelihood to play for the title.

1. Ohio State - Universally regarded as the best team in the country. They have the kind of depth and balance that no other team has shown (probably the only “great” team in the country). They are not unbeatable but they are very well coached and would be the best team in any game against any opponent. They are deservedly the odds-on favorite to win it all.

2. Michigan - They have performed very well this year. They probably have the best balance outside of Ohio State. However key injuries to their big play WR, starting RB, top two TEs and two starting offensive linemen might mean that this offense will be a shell of its early season self when they travel to Columbus on November 18th. Their defense has been unbelievable, but then again the quality of their Big 10 opponents is down this year. Chances are they will lose to Ohio State unless the Buckeyes turn the ball over.

3. Florida - Florida controls its own destiny. If they finish the year undefeated and beat FSU, South Carolina and either Auburn or Arkansas, they will probably be ranked high enough in the human polls to get the computer boost over Louisville even if Louisville is undefeated. However, with the current ineffective Gator offense it’s going to be a tough challenge to accomplish that. Watching White, Reynaud and Slayton for WVU, one could see the potential for big plays in a properly run spread attack. But you won’t see that in Gainesville for another year, and the Gators have no backs in the same league as Slayton.
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It was Rich Rodriguez’s West Virginia team who needed a Thursday-night road win against fifth-ranked Louisville to stay in the National Championship discussion. All year long, the Mountaineers have been fighting for respect, but Louisville has been the team which has defied the odds since their talented running back — Michael Bush — suffered a season-ending knee injury in early September.

The only thing standing between Louisville moving up to claim the #3 spot in the BCS standings are the talented Florida Gators. They’ve won many games this year, but have not won in as impressive a fashion as you would expect for a team in contention for the big prize.

The Gators make the road trip to Nashville this weekend for their yearly game against Vanderbilt. The Gators are in need of an impressive showing to keep their #3 spot. They will need to show some signs of life in the offense and some evidence of a kicking game. It’s not just this weekend that the Gators have to be flashy in their play; it is sort of like a beauty contest from here on out if this Florida team is going to remain in the hunt.

Of course, there are still many games to be played by the Gators and the several teams remaining in the hunt. So it’s still open season, but lets take a look at the potential MNC teams and the remaining games on their schedule.

Ohio State: @Illinois, @Northwestern, Michigan

Michigan: Ball State, @Indiana, @Ohio State

So far this season, nobody looks like they are in Ohio State’s class. They have dominated from the first week of the season. The interesting thing here is that whoever loses the big Ohio State-Michigan game virtually knocks the other team out of the running for the championship game.

Florida : @Vandy, South Carolina, Western Carolina, @FSU

Louisville: @Rutgers, South Florida, @Pittsburgh, Connecticut

Auburn: Arkansas State, Georgia, @Alabama

Rutgers: Louisville, @Cincinnati, Syracuse, @West Vriginia

Arkansas: @South Carolina, Tennessee, @MSU, LSU

The Gators have a tough task ahead of them if they are to remain in the hunt. The good news: their toughest games are over and done with. The bad: they still have to beat Steve Spurrier, Bobby Bowden, and most likely Tommy Tuberville coached teams. As far as Louisville goes, or any other Big East team, I just don’t see them getting a shot at the game even if they run the table. Auburn could be the spoiler if the stars align correctly. They still have to hope for a chance at SEC West crown with Arkansas going down in the next few weeks.

Texas: OSU, @KSU, Texas A&M

USC: @Stanford, Oregon, California, Notre Dame, @UCLA

California: UCLA, @Arizona, @ USC, Stanford

USC: @Stanford, Oregon, California, Notre Dame, @UCLA

Notre Dame: UNC, @AirForce, Army, @USC

If the teams at the top falter, it appears that Texas has the best chance at the title game. They have the easier schedule out of the remaining teams. I would think USC would be next in line, but it’s a tall order to beat both Cal and Notre Dame. Their schedule is the toughest out of the group. Cal has simply gone out and taken care of business week in and week out since their early season loss to Tennessee. They are a leigitimate title contender in my opinion, since it’s better to be a one-loss team with the loss coming early in the season.

In my opinion the championship game will be Ohio State and another one loss team. I don’t see a Big East team getting a title shot. I am hoping for SEC representation in the the game for all the marbles. I hope Gators sieze the opportunity they have in front of them.