I’m not going to lie, Gator fans. I don’t feel good about this game at all.
But: since our team is the Florida Gators, we always have a realistic chance to win any game we play. That’s something we’ll always enjoy as long as Urban and co. keep us in Top 10 territory. Year in and year out, I think he will. This will probably be one of our youngest teams that we’ll ever have in the Meyer era, so this problem should go away for good after this year. But for now, they’re fuzzy-faced, they’re inexperienced, and they are going to play in a seething cauldron of hell.
So today, going in to Baton Rouge, I don’t like our chances of defeating LSU too well. But at the same time, winning the game wouldn’t be a total shock. I’d be surprised, but it’s not like the hapless Fightin’ Irish knocking off Southern Cal or sum’n like that. We can win this game.
Here are the keys to doing so:
1. Protect Tim Tebow!
Since Tebow’s likely to pick up the majority of total offensive yards yet again, protecting the Big Fella is paramount. This is obvious. Against Auburn, Florida did not control the line of scrimmage, for the first time I can remember since, well, the Auburn loss of ‘06. The offensive line must be ready to mix up their protections and make their assignments based on a shifty, fast, and athletic LSU defense. This might be a good game to leave an H-back and a tight-end in a little more often, and perhaps limit ourselves to two or three wide on most 3rd-and medium and 3rd-and-long situations. When Meyer did this with Leak in the backfield last year, the results were very positive.
2. Establish a ‘real’ running game.
The common observation from armchair quarterbacks everywhere seems to be that Tim Tebow is getting too many carries. Generally speaking, I agree with this. Tebow is getting a little too predictable back there and perhaps he’s starting to give some tells that he is running the ball. Or perhaps he’s just deciding to run on too many pass plays. Either way, Kestahn Moore has been effective. Let’s use him. Brandon James and Percy Harvin have been terrific on perimeter runs. With Bubba Caldwell and Riley Cooper both healthy, we can stretch the field to open up more of the running game. Let’s pound it more.
3. Throw the ball downfield!
Some of Tebow’s snaps against Auburn reminded me of Chris Leak from 2005: checking down way too often to Chad Jackson for that little 5-yard curl-and-die route, hanging him out to dry when a 230 lb. linebacker would come smashing into him at warp speed. I’m still amazed Jackson survived that season and can’t blame him for going pro as a junior. Who’d want to come back to that? Tebow has been doing the same thing with Percy Harvin. Tebow needs to expand his generally good QB vision and find deeper opportunities. Tebow is an excellent deep passer and this is a key component of Florida’s offense. We need to connect on a few big plays to stretch the field out. Don’t connect, and the field compresses, the running opportunities dwindle and we get into a dink and dunk game which we can’t win if we lose the lead.
4. On defense, don’t allow big plays.
I actually think the Tigers’ offense is a decent fit for our young defense. I’m not sure we’re going to stop them as often as we want to, but with Matt Flynn being a scrambler and LSU’s running game being the true staple of their offense, I think our run-stoppers can be effective here, particularly our defensive ends and linebackers, all of whom have good speed and flow to the ball very well. Matt Flynn hasn’t been a big play quarterback so far this year. Let’s take away the deep pass, allow the beneath-the-coverage passing game, and wait for errors to occur. In reality, this is no different from what the Gators generally want to do anyway. We’re not a lights out, 3-and-out defense like we were in 2006. If we can keep it close or even gain a lead in this game, LSU will start feeling the pressure. Make them play well.
5. Be net positive on turnover margin.
Duh. Obviously, this is always the goal in any game. But somehow, the Tigers, with Les Miles running the show, always seem like a ripe candidate for turning the ball over when they play Florida. In their last two games against LSU, the Gators have been the recipient of ten gift-wrapped turnovers (five in 2005, five in 2006.) Meanwhile they’ve turned the ball over to the Tigers only twice in those two games, making the net margin +8. If Florida can be opportunistic yet again and win the turnover battle, they can win the game. I’d go so far as to say that if they’re +2 or +3 in this game, they’ll win it.
6. Focus!
We need mistake-free football to win. Riley Cooper: know your routes before you run them. Offensive line: know your assignments. Run blockers (including wide-outs): hold your block and let our speedy players run untouched out of the backfield. Linebackers: always run to the ball. Defensive line: find a way to put some pressure on the quarterback! Secondary: you don’t need to be heroes today. LSU’s offensive is not explosive, they’re methodical. DO NOT allow receivers to get on top of you. Umbrella mode, gentlemen, please.