(This is the first of a three part series.)

For his own good, Mareese Speights needs to stay in school. And we’ll start with the stuff that makes college athletes leave school: money.

www.mynbadraft.com has Mo going 20th overall, so we’ll assume in case A that he darts and goes there.

For case B, pretend that he stays, leaves after one year, and goes up to No.10.

Finally, let’s have him stay for his senior year and go No.5 in C.

Here’s how the pay works after 4,3, and 2 years, respectively, using this year’s pay scales. In A and B, the team uses its option.

A: $1.06m + $1.14m + $1.22m + $1.89m = $5.31m
B: $1.75m + $1.88m + $2.01m = $5.64m
C: $2.64m + $2.83m = $5.47m

So Speights makes the most out of plan B by 2012, even with a one-year headstart in A. And by 2013, the sheer margin of C’s salary will have him positioned excellently should the team spend its option on him. And he’ll have a college degree.

Of course, this assumes that he’ll develop his talents and work on his weaknesses as he stays in school. This also assumes that he won’t get hurt in that timespan, but he hasn’t had anything serious yet at UF.

This is the complete opposite of Joakim Noah’s situation, where he was projected as a top-2 pick in 2006 and ended up sliding all the way down to No.9 a year later. Meanwhile, in between, Mo, let’s consider the real-life story of an anagulous superstar.

Tim Duncan was actually a competitive swimmer until he took up basketball as a high school freshman. When he went to Wake Forest, he made up for lost time, staying for all four years
despite being projected as the top pick at least once before.

Ultimately, he put his pro career on hold and was picked No.1 in 1997 anyway. But more importantly, he was a much more fundamentally sound player than he was in 1995 and 1996.

Two years later, he began building his legend by winning his first NBA ring and Finals MVP. Three more rings, two more Finals MVPs, and two regular-season MVP awards later, he is considered one of the best forward-centers in NBA history.

In the aftermath of the Gators’ second straight national championship, Billy Donovan inked a consensus #1 recruiting class for 2008. That much was to be expected; the coach is a notoriously fanatical recruiter, and two crystal basketballs make a compelling sales pitch. But with Florida’s season almost over, we want to see all five of these talented boys grow into seasoned young men.

“Get bigger!” is a frequently used suggestion when the subject of the Class of 2011’s improvement is discussed. But what other things, mental and emotional, can these guys do in the offseason? Note that walk-ons Shane Payne and Hudson Fricke have been excluded from this conversation. With five scholarship freshmen coming in, their days in Division I basketball are numbered.

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Florida plays CU tonight, a school famous for its priests, point guards, and pre-meds. On paper, the two schools are nearly neck-and-neck. The Jays are currently 22-10, the Gators 22-11. Florida is a #2 seed, Creighton a #3 seed. Even both coaches have their share of similarities: Billy Donovan has 283 coaching wins, Dana Altman 282.

But there is one very important difference between the Jays and Gators, one that is out of both schools’ controls: No Creighton player is taller than 6′9″. Consequently, Florida’s best chance to win rests in the gigantic hands of Mareese Speights. If the good guys want to extend their season, Mo must play as big as his towering frame. No offense to Calathes or any of the other wizards behind the arc, but Donovan can’t afford a shootout at this point in the season.

I expect Florida to play dy-no-mite perimeter defense. The Gators aren’t going to beat 3’s with 2’s (Just ask last year’s Ohio State squad.) Also, the more fans inside the O-Dome, the better. I was there for the San Diego State game; the stadium wasn’t even a third of the way full. The young Gators are going to need all of the help they can get.

My prediction: Florida wins a close one behind a 20-10 game from Mo-reese.

Above: Appalachian State students in Boone, North Carolina, posing with the goalposts they ripped out of the turf at ASU Stadium, dragged down the street, and deposited in the University Chancellor’s driveway after the Mountaineers defeated Michigan in the “Big House” on September 1st, 2007.

In the fall of 2005, I had high hopes for Kestahn Moore. Moore brought a blue collar work ethic with him to Florida which outshone DeShawn Wynn, Marcus Manson and Skyler Thornton on the practice fields. (”He taught those kids how to work,” said running backs coach Stan Drayton at the time.) And I liked Moore’s ability to travel north and south without D. Wynn’s stutter-stepping and Marcus Manson’s trippability. But during his two years in Gainesville, Moore has seen only limited action at tailback, carrying for less than 280 yards in both ‘05 and ‘06. He’s rarely been exciting to watch, and most would agree that he’s yet to give any indication that he’s potentially a feature back.

In 2007, DeShawn Wynn has graduated, Skyler Thornton has transferred and Marcus Manson is now playing cornerback. A new crop of young players are competing with Moore, now a junior, for touches at the position: Mon Williams (out with an ACL injury this year), Chevon Walker (great spring scrimmage), Chris Rainey (fast, but short and thin) and even our beloved midget punt returner, the 4′ 3″ Brandon James.

But I look at all of those players and want to like Moore the most. He outworks the field. He’s a sinewy mass of muscle. Although he’s not a 230+ lb. bowling ball like DeShawn Wynn, he’s by far the biggest and toughest of the current corps. He has handled two moderately disappointing years with nary a complaint. He’s done well as a lead blocker for B. James on punt returns and is definitely the best backfield blocker among the RB corps, good at picking up the blitz as well and gluing himself to his guy. And of course, in his third year as a Gator, he brings the most experience to the position.

Season’s almost here. Where does he stand?

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Bubba is back. And for the Florida Gator long timers out there I am not talking about Chris Capers. Its been a while that this Caldwell has been associated with the University of Florida. He was part of that Chris Leak recruiting class that arrived here under Ron Zook and happens to be a favorite player of mine. I expect him to be the Dallas Baker of 2008. The player we call clutch and one player we take for granted as a key play maker who always makes the plays. I don’t blame Jarvis Moss, Ute turned Gator play maker Ryan Smith, and whoever else throws there name in the mix for the NFL. But hey, we are only getting started here with Urban-mania. Climb aboard as the fun will continue for many years to come.

I can’t wait until February…

UPDATE: Andre Caldwell has announced he is staying and will return next year. The Gainesville Sun has stated that Jarvis Moss and Ryan Smith are going to the NFL. ESPN is reporting that Brandon Siler and Reggie Nelson will also go pro.