There has been much ado (at least by me) regarding the ratings drop for the NCAA Tournament this year. My curiosity on the subject caused me to dig a little deeper into the issue. There were initial attempts by some to declare the first week’s rating decline as simply a function of Easter Weekend (because of all the avid catholic roundball fans I guess). However when the trend continued into week two that seemed a bit of a stretch (a weeklong Easter Hangover?). But then in the face of those lukewarm first two weekends the 2008 NCAA Tournament revealed to us a dream Final Four . . . a compilation where all four number one seeds had reached the final weekend. But that was not all as it also included three of the most storied college basketball programs in UCLA, North Carolina and Kansas. I mean what could be better than that, right?

Well, I’ll tell you something that could have been better – CLOSE, WATCHABLE games. It’s true, I fell into the trap thinking that this compelling matchup of titans (which also included recent power Memphis who had held the #1 spot in the polls for most of the season) would make for some exciting and dynamic games. Unfortunately nothing could have been further from the truth. The results of last weekends contests between UCLA and Memphis and North Carolina and Kansas were two truly ANTI-CLIMATIC blowouts of 15 and 18 points respectively. Oooooh, what gripping television . . . is that going to boost ratings?

According to the overnight ratings - apparently not. Last weekend’s overnight showed that while the marquee evening matchup of Kansas and North Carolina approximated last years UCLA vs Florida late semifinal game (at least it probably will after the ratings are expanded in the next few days), the preceding game (UCLA vs Memphis) was down almost 14% from last years matchup of Ohio State and Georgetown. Okay so what gives? Why is it that this tournament could end up becoming the second lowest rated Tournament in the past 3 decades? Only the 2003 Tournament will have lower ratings than 2008 and that tournament has the excuse of being played at the beginning of the Iraqi War. (more…)

We are smack dab in the heart of March Madness.  The Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight games await us this weekend and all of corporate America will soon be eyeing the brackets to determine who still has a chance to capture their local cash pot.  It’s time to talk college basketball and as such I’d like to add my thoughts regarding the SEC Conference and the Florida Gators.  First, I’ll start with the SEC.

(UPDATE - Major apologies to all O&BHue readers.  While editing a picture I unwittingly deleted a few sentences in the last section regarding tournament ratings.  I apologize for not catching what turned into a confusing slew of gibberish once the beginning of the topic was lost. - KG)
 
SEC BASKETBALL
 
Prior to the season the consensus of thought ran that it would be a down year in the conference.  Of course we had heard similar thoughts back in 2005/2006 when an SEC team won the National Championship (UF), the SEC had two teams in the Final Four (UF and LSU) and another SEC team won the NIT Championship (South Carolina).  Many self-proclaimed experts found themselves looking foolish making those early predictions.  The SEC WAS in fact a “young conference” (Both LSU and UF were upstart teams led by underclassmen) but talent overtook any lack of experience. 
 
The 2007/2008 season began with largely the same scenario.  Only one team looked to return a top caliber and experienced squad (Tennessee) while most other teams would be relying on newcomers or underclassmen as their focal points.  While the talent of the league might have been as good as ever, this season turned out far differently than two seasons prior.  The SEC was a weak league in basketball.  Kentucky struggled to get to .500 in the preseason yet won at a 75% clip in conference, Vanderbilt struggled to win away from Memorial Gymnasium and Arkansas seemed to consistently underachieve all season long.
 

(more…)

It looks as if Florida’s streak of 9 consecutive NCAA tournament wins will come to an ignonimous end.  From two straight national championships to the NIT is a hard fall for Gator fans.  Sunday’s loss to Kentucky all but wrapped up an NIT for the bid.  Even any favoritism Florida might have received for their past two season accomplishments can’t overcome the 2007-2008 body of work.  The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee usually has several factors they look at when choosing a tournament team.  Among them are:

How did a team finish the season?
If a team starts slow but finishes hot, playing their best at the end the committee usually looks upon these teams favorably.  The idea is that these teams are playing hardest when it matters the most, the sign of a deserving team.  Florida drops the ball here finishing 3 and 7 in their last 10 regular season games.

How many quality wins does a team have?
Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.  How many victories does a team have over good teams is the focus here.  In this count Florida can claim just two wins over NCAA tournament caliber teams - Vanderbilt and Kentucky.

Can a team win on the road?
Beating good teams at home is fine but the NCAA tournament is a neutral site event.  If you want to prove to the selection committee that you belong then you need to win some games on the road.  In this area Florida has the worst blemish on its resume in that it has NO quality road or neutral site victories. (more…)

Remember USC? They’re baaaaaaack.

After coming heart-wrenchingly close to pulling out a win against us on their home turf, the Gamecocks are hen-pecked heading into Gainesville. The Gators have hit such a skid that they know anyone poses a threat.

Simply put, of all the “big” games Florida’s had over the past few weeks, this one takes it to an entirely different level. With no guarantee of being chosen on selection Sunday, they MUST win this game to break the slide. In all likelihood, this is the last game on the schedule where they will be the clear favorites to win. ‘Nuff said.

(more…)

Dear Florida basketball players,

Congratulations.

You’ve stayed resilient and pulled out wins in four of your first five SEC games. You’ve improved to 17-3 - without five NBA rookies and a pro on a Greek team. People were not expecting you to make the strides in growth that you did.

But now, a whole new challenge awaits you. It’s called February.

Your scheduling gets a whole lot tougher, starting now with Vanderbilt. You’ll get tired as games drag on and on, with no rest seemingly in sight. The long hours spent traveling around the Southeast will take their toll. In short, basketball starts becoming boring.

(more…)

The folks over at Rush The Court have done an analysis on the nation’s top performing basketball programs in the modern age. Using the beginning of the 64 seed tournament as a start point (1985) they have analyzed the success (and failures) of teams in the NCAA Tournament. Though much of it seems to be common sense their analysis identifies eight elite basketball programs further divided into three categories. These eight programs have been ranked based on appearances, winning percentage, Sweet 16, Final Four appearances and national titles.

Using a minimum of eight NCAA appearances as a prerequisite for analysis (to prove a program’s consistency rather than being just a short term fluke) 39 teams were identified as having won more than half of their games (50%). At the 70% level eight programs stand out, those programs are Duke, Connecticut, North Carolina, Kentucky, UNLV, Kansas, Florida and Michigan. When pulling all the factors together an Elite Eight programs were identified and further broken down into three groups. First you have the top 3 programs, Duke, North Carolina and Kentucky in that order. Duke clearly has the dominant statistics in terms of appearances, #1 seeds, sweet 16s, Final Fours and national Titles. In fact Duke is the only program with 3 national titles in this era.

Behind Duke both North Carolina and Kentucky are neck and neck in second place and the authors give UNC the nod and I concur. Despite virtually the same number of appearances (21-20), sweet sixteens (15-14), winning percentage (0.750-0.743) and Titles (2 apiece), North Carolina has almost twice the number of Final Fours as the Wildcats (7-4). Following the top 3 come the other traditional powers of Kansas, UCLA and Indiana with Indiana being having the most tenuous hold on the list due to its lack of recent success. Following those six programs come the “nouveaux riche” programs. The up and coming elite programs that have the numbers and success but not the longer tradition. Those teams are Connecticut and Florida. (more…)

Unless, you have been on Mars, you know of the NCAA recent twist with blogger Brian Bennett who took issue with his live blogging. The NCAA believes any statistic that takes place during one of its athletic competitions is property of NCAA, and reporting it in a live game thread is a breach of proprietary information it claims it owns.

Well, its curious why at this point the NCAA has decided to take issue with this. As, any person with a computer can provide game updates either being live at the sporting event, or from the comfort at home while watching on tv, listening on radio, or even while its broadcast over the internet. I know I have been guilty of providing web updates of live events previously.

Well, there is a precedent that says that this claim the NCAA claim will not hold up. In the book The Numbers Game by Alan Schwarz (page 183) he mentions how the NBA came after John Dewan of STATS for supplying AOL and Motorolla with game statistics and game updates to their subscribers. The NBA claimed that STATS was infringing on their intellectual properties. In the battle of STATS vs NBA, Judge Preska ruled that providing game updates such as real time data was in essence providing a simultaneous rebroadcast of the game. Basically, by her ruling its was stating that STATS was stealing the NBA data unlawfully, even though STATS was simply providing game facts. STATS fought back and filed an appeal. In the appeal, they ruled that public-domain information can’t be considered private property. A HUGE win for STATS and this ruling will pave the groundwork to show that the NCAA claim is bogus, and the Brian Bennett’s of the world will be allowed to continue their work.